Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sat, May 26, 2018 - Sun, May 27, 2018 D7Tue, May 29, 2018 - Wed, May 30, 2018
D5Sun, May 27, 2018 - Mon, May 28, 2018 D8Wed, May 30, 2018 - Thu, May 31, 2018
D6Mon, May 28, 2018 - Tue, May 29, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS48 KWNS 230803
SWOD48
SPC AC 230802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Predictability will remain low into early next week.

Latest medium-range model guidance is in reasonable agreement
regarding the evolution of a short-wave trough as it tops the Plains
ridge and translates into the upper Great Lakes region day4. This
feature is not particularly strong but is expected to aid convection
along the northeastern plume of higher moisture/buoyancy. While
isolated severe can not be ruled out, forecast marginal shear does
not suggest predictability is adequate for an organized area
delineated this period.

Another area where strong convection may ultimately evolve is near
the Gulf Coast; however, there is considerable discrepancy among
late evening guidance regarding the evolution of a Gulf low pressure
system that will struggle to be drawn north due to weak steering
currents.

Early next week stronger mid-level flow may ultimately spread into
the northern High Plains which could aid strong convection across
this region. Again, predictability is too low regarding this western
US trough to warrant severe probs this period.

..Darrow.. 05/23/2018