Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sun, Feb 25, 2018 - Mon, Feb 26, 2018 D7Wed, Feb 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 01, 2018
D5Mon, Feb 26, 2018 - Tue, Feb 27, 2018 D8Thu, Mar 01, 2018 - Fri, Mar 02, 2018
D6Tue, Feb 27, 2018 - Wed, Feb 28, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS48 KWNS 221006
SPC AC 221005

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Valid 251200Z - 021200Z

Early day 4 (Sunday) at least a marginal severe threat may be
ongoing along remnant squall line from the southern Appalachians
into the Southeast States and possibly continuing into the Middle
Atlantic. However, tendency will be for the stronger forcing and
low-level jet to shift away from the more unstable portion of the
warm sector, limiting overall severe threat.

The cold front will move into the northern Gulf by day 5 (Monday)
leaving stable conditions inland. While elevated convection may
occur as this boundary retreats north as a warm front later day 6
(Tuesday night), overall severe weather threat should remain low.

..Dial.. 02/22/2018