Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Mon, Nov 27, 2017 - Tue, Nov 28, 2017 D7Thu, Nov 30, 2017 - Fri, Dec 01, 2017
D5Tue, Nov 28, 2017 - Wed, Nov 29, 2017 D8Fri, Dec 01, 2017 - Sat, Dec 02, 2017
D6Wed, Nov 29, 2017 - Thu, Nov 30, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS48 KWNS 240815
SWOD48
SPC AC 240814

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of
the synoptic pattern in the D4/Monday-D8/Friday time frame,
medium-range guidance shows some agreement in the general evolution
around the middle of the week. Indeed, a potentially closed cyclone
will migrate eastward from the Four Corners to the southern/central
Plains D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, with this migration in response
to an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest. As the impulse
reaches the central US, it may be accompanied by some thunderstorm
activity, with forecast soundings suggesting weak elevated buoyancy.
However, low-level moisture return will be considerably hampered by
early-week ridging in the wake of a shortwave trough advancing
southeast over the Gulf. Therefore, despite the presence of vigorous
mid-level wind fields, the potential for any substantive
destabilization (and related severe potential) appears low at this
time. 

Thereafter, the upstream trough may push eastward across the central
US through the end of the week. However, once again, low-level
moisture will probably be quite limited, tempering any severe
threat.

..Picca.. 11/24/2017