000
FXUS61 KOKX 151426
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1026 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Departing high pressure to the east gives way to a weak low
pressure staying south of the region. The low pressure tracks
north on Tuesday and into Wednesday.High pressure returns
Thursday, and remains over the region Friday. Another low
approaches from the south Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast remains on track. Low pressure was located across
eastern KY along a stationary boundary draped through the mid
south. A weak upper trough was also located in upstate NY.
Another dry day is expected today under the waning influence of
the high and east/southeasterly flow. In addition, some of the
CAMs are indicated scattered afternoon shower or even isolated
thunder activity across the interior associated with the trough.
Not expecting these to amount to much, if anything, given the
very dry mid and low levels depicted in model soundings. Have
maintained the slight chance PoPs across the Lower Hudson Valley
for this afternoon, but again expected any activity to be
widely scattered at best.

Highs in the low to mid 80s for most areas today, with upper 70s
across eastern LI and CT coast given the easterly/northeast
fetch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper low continues to churn, and cut off, over the northeast for
Tuesday and Wednesday. With the mid/upper low essentially overhead,
and a stationary front located well to the south, a series of weak
low pressure systems are thus progged to develop and head northeast,
remaining mostly offshore and to the southeast of the local area.
The trend in the guidance has supported a drier forecast for both
days over the past few cycles.

Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday as low pressure ejects off
the southeast coast and passes to the south. Surface high builds to
our northwest leaving the area essentially between the two systems.
Thus, most of the area will be dry on Tuesday, save for eastern LI
and southeastern CT.  Even for those locations, however,
precipitation chances have been kept at slight chance, and just for
Tuesday afternoon given the eastward shift in the ensembles/globals
models. Any precipitation will be quite light in nature, on the
order of a few hundredths. Easterly flow will pick up Tuesday
afternoon as the low makes its closest approach, with 15-20 mph
and perhaps a gust to 25mph, most likely across eastern
sections.

By Wednesday, cloud cover becomes more widespread and the surface
low heads northeast into New England. Again, have kept slight chance
PoPs for the area Wednesday morning and afternoon, as some wrap
around moisture and showers may approach the area.  But again, not
looking at anything more than a couple hundredths at best.

High temperatures both days a few degrees below normal, in the low
to mid 80s, given the cloud cover and easterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term period and stuck fairly
close to the NBM guidance.

The upper level trough and low gradually lift north and move away
from the region Wednesday night with ridging and high pressure
building back into the area for Thursday and Friday. Expect both days
to be dry with temperatures in the 80s to possibly lower 90s on
Friday.

A frontal boundary remains across the southern/Gulf coast states
with yet another wave developing on the front. This wave is
currently forecast to track north along the coast, and may bring
precipitation next weekend. There does remain a little bit of
uncertainty with the timing of this next system. Its possible that
Saturday could be dry, with rain chances starting Saturday night and
Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will once again be in the 80s with
some temperatures close to 90 in the most urban areas, however
Sunday should be slightly cooler with highs only in the lower and
middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure passes well south of the region today and tonight.

VFR and dry conditions expected through the TAF period. There
may be a brief shower at KSWF, however confidence too low to
include in the TAFs, and no impact expected.

The light and variable winds this morning become a E-SE flow in
the 5-10 kt range for the rest of day. Winds become light and
variable once again tonight for most of the TAF sites. Tuesday
morning, winds become more northeasterly around 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction this afternoon could at times be more southerly than
forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR. NE-E wind gusts 15-20 kt. Wind gusts
subside at night.
.Wednesday...Chance of rain showers during the day with MVFR
possible. Mainly VFR at night. N-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt during
the day. Wind gusts subside at night.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the area will result in a relatively weak
pressure gradient across the forecast waters Tuesday morning.

Small craft advisory wind gusts and seas are expected on the ocean
waters Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as a low southeast of
Montauk Point tracks north. In collaboration with neighboring
offices, have issued a SCA for all ocean waters from 18Z Tuesday
through 12Z Wednesday. It`s possible that gusts may be more
occasional for the western ocean zones. Wind gusts diminish
below SCA levels during Wednesday, however, ocean seas will
linger at SCA levels into Thursday morning.

High pressure returns Thursday into Friday and winds and seas
across the forecast waters will be below advisory levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly dry conditions are expected again today. Minimum RH
values (40-50%) and relatively light winds (gusts under 20 mph)
should preclude a higher threat for fire spread.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low rip current risk at the ocean beaches today with an
easterly swell less than 2 feet. The easterly swell will be
increasing into Tuesday and Wednesday. A moderate risk of rip
currents at the ocean beaches with 3-4 ft swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion