000
FXUS61 KOKX 020322
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1022 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area through Friday night, before
giving way to a fast moving cold front Saturday. High pressure
follows for Sunday and Monday. A low pressure system may impact
the weather either next Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The forecast remains on track tonight. There was minimal
difference between forecast and observed hourly temperatures and
dewpoints. High pressure continues to build into the area late
tonight. The pressure gradient will continue to relax, allowing
winds to become light just about everywhere after midnight.

Clear skies, combined with the light winds, will result in good
radiational cooling. Expect temperatures tonight to fall into
the 20s and lower 30s. A few readings in the teens can not be
ruled out, especially across the usual colder spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The high will remain near the region Friday, with a continued dry
and sunny forecast expected. Winds will become more southerly,
allowing temperatures to climb into the 40s and lower 50s.

The high will slide east late in the day Friday and Friday night.
This will allow the next frontal system to approach from the
west. Clouds will gradually increase and lower overnight. Also,
there is a chance that some light precipitation starts moving in
before sunrise across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and
NE NJ. Any precipitation that falls will be light. Lows Friday
night will fall into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Global deterministic models and ensemble means are in good
agreement with the pattern evolution this weekend, then diverge
early next week. The forecast thinking has not changed much with
regards to the quick moving frontal system on Saturday.

Deepening low pressure will be moving across southeast Canada on
Saturday, sending a fast moving cold front across the region late in
the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, strong warm advection
will take place along with a steepening pressure gradient. Low and
middle level flow increases as a result with 50-65 kt between 925-
950 mb. This is about 5-10 kt weaker than what was observed on
Wednesday. Gusty SW winds 30-40 mph are forecast with the strongest
winds occurring across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. The
thinking continues to be that winds will fall short of advisory
levels on Saturday. The low level jet quickly pushes to the east
late Saturday afternoon and evening with the cold front following
around 00z.

Moisture levels are not as high as Wednesday as well, but the fast
moving system should develop a band of showers moving west to east
during the morning and afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts of one
quarter to one third of an inch are forecast. The guidance has been
relatively consistent with these amounts, which makes sense given
the fast nature of the front.

Another day of unseasonably warm temperatures are expected ahead of
the front. High pressure then builds in from the west Saturday night
behind the front bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures.
The atmosphere also quickly dries out with winds gradually weakening
through Saturday night. There is good agreement among the modeling
that the high pressure remains in control through Monday.

The modeling then diverges Tuesday into the middle of the week.
A large upper level low over Canada will start sinking south into
the northern US while southern ridging will attempt to build
northward. There will be several pieces of energy moving between the
two systems, with potential remaining for the next front/low
pressure to impact the region either Tuesday or Wednesday. The
consensus of the guidance has the front moving through Tuesday into
Tuesday night, but there are several members that have it occurring
on Wednesday. The overall set up favors plain rain as high pressure
moves offshore early in the week and the primary low moving over or
to our north and west. Have continued with chance PoPs Tues/Tues
night and slow down the lowering probabilities to account for any
potential delayed timing. It does appear like another progressive
system which should limit precip amounts. Temperatures rebound to
above normal levels Monday through the middle of the week, but could
fall below normal by Wednesday if the front ends up faster.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight and then moves out
into the Atlantic Friday into Friday evening.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will be W to
NW tonight, becoming variable direction late tonight into early
Friday. Wind speeds will be around 10-12 kt this evening, closer to
15 kt at KJFK and KLGA before decreasing to near 4-8 kt overnight.
Wind speeds early Friday will be near 5 kts or less increasing to
around 8-11 kt late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Winds
on Friday will become more southerly.

     .NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KJFK and KLGA will have some lingering WNW-NW gusts around 20
kt this evening. Forecast end time of these gusts could be off
by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday night...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain showers and MVFR for
KSWF late.
.Saturday...Rain with MVFR. IFR possible. S-SW winds
around 15-20 kt gusting near 25-30kt, highest toward the coast.
Gusts near 30-35 kt east of NYC terminals. Cold fropa late
day/early evening, with winds shifting W-NW G20-25kt and
improvement to VFR. NW gusts decrease late closer to 15-20 kt.
.Sunday and Monday...VFR.
.Monday night...MVFR possible. Chance of rain and snow showers
at KSWF, chance of rain showers for other terminals late.
.Tuesday...Chance of rain showers, with MVFR
cond possible. SE-S winds G15-20kt along the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to gradually subside tonight. Most of the
forecast waters are below SCA except for the ocean east of Fire
Island Inlet. The ocean waters from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
Point remain in SCA as that has been extended until 1AM Friday.
There are some lingering gusts near 25 kt as well as ocean seas
of around 5 to 6 ft.

Sub-SCA conditions then expected thereafter overnight for all
forecast waters through the first half of Friday night. SCA
conditions return to the waters around midnight Friday night as
winds and seas increase ahead of the next frontal system.

SCA conditions are likely on Saturday with potential of gales in the
afternoon and early evening. Have continued to mention this
potential in the HWO and have held off on a watch for now based on
collaboration with neighboring WFOs. Any gales weaken back to SCA
gusts behind a strong cold front passage Saturday evening.
SCA conditions continue on the ocean for all of Saturday night with
lingering gusts and elevated seas, but should be below on the Sound,
Harbor, and Bays. 5 ft seas may linger on the waters east of
Moriches Inlet early Sunday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions
are expected Sunday and Monday. Marginal SCA conditions are possible
on the ocean on Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion