FXUS61 KOKX 241438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1038 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

A weak wave of low pressure tracks east today along a stalled
cold front to the south of the region. Low pressure tracking
across the upper Great Lakes into eastern Canada will send a
warm front toward the area on Saturday. Low pressure developing
along the front will pass over or just south of Long Island
Saturday night, with high pressure briefly returning in its wake
for Sunday. Another weak low will pass through Monday and
Monday night, and a third low will pass to the south from late
Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will return for Wednesday
night and Thursday.


Abundant high and mid level clouds today to the north of a weak
wave moving east along a stalled frontal boundary. An area of
rain (brief sleet mixing in at the onset) riding eastward along
the front over S PA/OH supported by mid level shortwave energy
as well as an upper jet streak will clip the NYC metro area and
Long Island this afternoon. PoP in these areas only chance at
best, as the high nosing down to the north could introduce
enough low level dry air to shunt most precip to the south. High
temps today should be in the lower 50s.

Clouds will hang on most of tonight, with some light precip
possibly entering western sections close to daybreak. A light
wintry mix may be possible across some of the interior if
precip arrive early enough, mainly rain mixed with sleet. Lows
will range from around 40 across NYC and western Long Island,
into the 30s elsewhere, with near freezing across the
northernmost inland tier.


Precip with approaching warm front should be mainly rain on Sat,
but cannot rule out some sleet across the interior, even some
freezing rain in the higher elevations of NW Orange County as
temps warm aloft and low level cold air hangs on into the

Secondary low pressure developing along the approaching front
along the NJ coast late day Sat should skirt the south shore of
Long Island Sat night. Fcst soundings show some elevated
instability during this time, so cannot rule out some rumbles
of thunder in the metro area and along the coast during this
time. Conds dry out late Sat night as this low quickly moves E
of New England by daytime Sunday, with breezy conditions as the
pressure gradient tightens up but also milder due to sunshine,
deep mixing, and downslope NW flow.

Highs on Sat with clouds and precip should only be in the 40s,
with lows Sat night from the mid 30s inland to lower 40s for NYC
metro and Long Island. Highs on Sunday should reach the lower
60s in NE NJ and possibly NYC, with mid/upper 50s most
elsewhere and lower 50s for interior S CT and across the forks
of Long Island.


A near zonal flow sets up Sunday night and remains into early
next week. A more amplified shortwave is then forecast to move
through the flow for the midweek period. Sunday night into early
Monday high pressure passes to the north. A weak low passes to
the south Monday into Monday night and will bring light
precipitation to the region. mainly rain, with a period of light
snow inland late Monday night as the low moves to the east.
High pressure briefly returns Tuesday, however, with the near
zonal flow another system will be quickly approaching. There is
some uncertainty with the track of this low, and may be
displaced farther to the south, depending on how much the upper
shortwave amplifies. Once again the precipitation will be mainly
rain, with a chance of some light snow well inland as the low
departs late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will be
near seasonal levels through the extended period.


High pressure builds down from southeast Canada through today,
and moves east this evening. A warm front approaches late
tonight and Saturday.

VFR, possibly becoming MVFR along the coast toward 12Z Saturday
with light rain.

Winds NW, becoming west mid to late afternoon. A late day sea
breeze is possible at KJFK, KBDR, and possibly at KGON. Late
tonight, with the approach of a warm front, winds become NE to
E, and timing of the wind shift is uncertain, with low

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds will veer gradually from N to W thru 19Z.

A late day seabreeze possible at KJFK, around 22Z or later, and
did bring winds around to 200, however there is a chance winds
remain west.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.


Saturday: MVFR to IFR in rain, sleet possible at KSWF at the
onset. Slight chance of TSTM. E-SE winds G25-30kt along the
coast. Improvements to VFR possible late Saturday night with W/NW
G15-20 kt.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G20-30kt.

Monday: VFR. A slight chance of rain.

Tuesday: MVFR with a slight chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.


Quiet cond expected through this evening, then increasing E
flow should lead to a return of SCA cond on the ocean late
tonight, then on all waters daytime Sat. A few gale force gusts
may be possible on the ocean waters Sat afternoon/evening as the
pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure and
an approaching warm front, and as low pressure develops on the
front and moves across Sat evening.

There could be a lull in conds on the waters Sat night, then a
brisk NW flow should maintain SCA cond on all waters late Sat
night into daytime Sunday.

Ongoing SCA conditions will be possible across the ocean waters
east of Moriches Inlet early Sunday night with high pressure
building to the west behind departing low pressure. Conditions
then remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters
through Tuesday. A low passing to the south Tuesday night into
Wednesday may bring SCA gusts to the ocean waters, and possibly
marginal seas across the outer waters.


No hydrologic issues expected.


E-SE flow should lead to increasing surge Saturday, with minor
coastal flooding possible for the Saturday night high tide
cycle. This will be mainly across the South Shore Bays of Long
Island and Western Long Island Sound shorelines. Lowering
astronomical tides may mitigate this potential somewhat as
Saturday will be 4 days since the new moon.





NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion