SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264

WW 264 SEVERE TSTM OK 200035Z - 200500Z
      
WW 0264 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Northern Oklahoma

* Effective this Sunday night from 735 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely move east
into central Oklahoma during the evening.  Additional isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible this evening.  The risk for large
to very large hail and severe gusts will accompany any mature
supercell.  The severe risk is expected to lessen later this evening
as convective inhibition strengthens.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Enid OK to 5 miles south southeast of Bartlesville OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW
261...WW 262...WW 263...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

...Smith

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263

WW 263 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 200010Z - 200400Z
      
WW 0263 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
710 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southern North Dakota
  Northeast South Dakota

* Effective this Sunday evening from 710 PM until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will potentially
be capable of 60-70 mph gusts and large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in
diameter through the evening hours.  The severe risk is forecast to
diminish by late evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of
Mobridge SD to 120 miles southeast of Mobridge SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW
261...WW 262...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
23035.

...Smith

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262

WW 262 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 192320Z - 200700Z
      
WW 0262 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
620 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southern Iowa
  Eastern Kansas
  Western Missouri
  Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 620 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Several severe thunderstorm clusters are forecast to
develop and move eastward into the Watch area this evening into the
overnight.  Severe gusts ranging between 60-85 mph are possible with
the more intense thunderstorm cores and bowing segments.  Large hail
may accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms mainly this
evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Lamoni IA to 55 miles southwest of Chanute KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW 261...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Smith

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261

WW 261 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 192135Z - 200200Z
      
WW 0261 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Colorado
  Northwest Kansas
  Southwest Nebraska

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop
through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.  The
stronger storms will be capable of severe gusts and large hail.  A
tornado cannot be ruled out with any cyclonic supercell.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north
northwest of Burlington CO to 65 miles east of Mccook NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258...WW 259...WW 260...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Smith

Read more

SPC PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260

WW 260 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 191935Z - 200300Z
      
WW 0260 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and Central Kansas
  Northwestern Oklahoma
  Northeastern Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
  Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant
    gusts to 90 mph likely
  Widespread large hail expected with scattered very large hail
    events to 4 inches in diameter likely
  A few tornadoes possible

SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and
track rapidly eastward across the watch area through the afternoon
evening.  Supercells capable of giant hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes will be the main threat early.  Storms will
organize into multiple fast-moving bowing lines through the evening
with a risk of widespread damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 135
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles southwest of
Alva OK to 45 miles northwest of Russell KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258...WW 259...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Hart

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259

WW 259 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD 191855Z - 200200Z
      
WW 0259 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Colorado
  Western Nebraska
  Western and Central South Dakota

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
  800 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming over parts of western South
Dakota and Nebraska.  These storms will spread eastward through the
afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging winds
gusts and hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
Mobridge SD to 40 miles southeast of Sidney NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Hart

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264 Status Reports

WW 0264 Status Updates
      
WW 0264 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0264 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263 Status Reports

WW 0263 Status Updates
      
WW 0263 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0263 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 Status Reports

WW 0262 Status Updates
      
WW 0262 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0262 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261 Status Reports

WW 0261 Status Updates
      
WW 0261 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 261

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MOORE..05/19/24

ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC125-200040-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

YUMA                 


KSC023-039-109-137-147-153-179-181-193-199-200040-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHEYENNE             DECATUR             LOGAN               
NORTON               PHILLIPS            RAWLINS             
SHERIDAN             SHERMAN             THOMAS              
WALLACE              


NEC057-065-087-145-200040-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DUNDY                FURNAS              HITCHCOCK           
RED WILLOW           
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 Status Reports

WW 0260 Status Updates
      
WW 0260 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 260

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE BGD TO
30 SSE LBL TO 20 WNW LBL TO 40 NNE EHA TO 25 E LAA.

..MOORE..05/19/24

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...AMA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC007-009-015-017-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-061-
063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-113-
115-119-123-127-135-141-143-145-151-155-159-161-163-165-167-169-
171-173-175-185-191-195-203-200040-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER               BARTON              BUTLER              
CHASE                CLARK               CLAY                
CLOUD                COMANCHE            DICKINSON           
EDWARDS              ELLIS               ELLSWORTH           
FINNEY               FORD                GEARY               
GOVE                 GRAHAM              GRANT               
GRAY                 GREELEY             HAMILTON            
HARPER               HARVEY              HASKELL             
HODGEMAN             KEARNY              KINGMAN             
KIOWA                LANE                LINCOLN             
MCPHERSON            MARION              MEADE               
MITCHELL             MORRIS              NESS                
OSBORNE              OTTAWA              PAWNEE              
PRATT                RENO                RICE                
RILEY                ROOKS               RUSH                
RUSSELL              SALINE              SCOTT               
SEDGWICK             SEWARD              STAFFORD            
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259 Status Reports

WW 0259 Status Updates
      
WW 0259 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 259

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ITR
TO 30 ENE AKO TO 20 WNW IML TO 25 SSE LBF TO 35 SSW ANW TO 35 W
VTN TO 40 ENE CDR TO 35 SE RAP TO 10 NNE Y22.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841

..MOORE..05/19/24

ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NEC029-063-085-200040-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHASE                FRONTIER            HAYES               


SDC007-021-031-041-055-065-071-075-085-095-107-117-119-121-123-
129-137-200040-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNETT              CAMPBELL            CORSON              
DEWEY                HAAKON              HUGHES              
JACKSON              JONES               LYMAN               
MELLETTE             POTTER              STANLEY             
SULLY                TODD                TRIPP               
WALWORTH             ZIEBACH             


Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 Status Reports

WW 0258 Status Updates
      
WW 0258 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 258

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AGR TO
55 ENE PBI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838

..MOORE..05/19/24

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

FLC011-086-099-192240-

FL 
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD              MIAMI-DADE          PALM BEACH          


AMZ610-630-650-651-192240-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE OKEECHOBEE 

BISCAYNE BAY 

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM 

COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM 

THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
Read more

SPC MD 843

MD 0843 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... FOR NORTHWEST KS
        
MD 0843 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

Valid 200013Z - 200145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail of 1 to 1.75 inches in diameter and localized
strong gusts from 45 to 60 mph will be possible for a couple more
hours across northwest Kansas. This activity should diminish after
dusk.

DISCUSSION...With a multitude of surface boundaries that collided
across parts of northwest Kansas, a few severe thunderstorms have
developed with reported hail up to 2 inches in diameter thus far.
This activity will likely remain nearly stationary as subsidence
behind the intense MCS over central KS suggests convection will
struggle to move east from northwest KS. As such, the severe threat
will persist through about dusk and likely diminish as MLCIN
nocturnally increases.

..Grams.. 05/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...

LAT...LON   40060146 39420056 39020030 38770043 38740091 39200185
            40020169 40060146 

Read more

SPC MD 842

MD 0842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260...262... FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
MD 0842 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...south central/southeastern Kansas and north
central/northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...262...

Valid 200000Z - 200230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260, 262
continues.

SUMMARY...Organizing convective clusters accompanied by potentially
strong, damaging wind gusts may increasingly impact areas east of
the Interstate 35 corridor of southeastern Kansas and northeastern
Oklahoma after 10 PM.  Trends are being monitored for an additional
severe weather watch across northeastern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Convective evolution into late evening remains somewhat
unclear.  As a low amplitude mid-level short wave progresses across
central Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley, mid-level warming
is forecast across much of Oklahoma.  Coupled with the onset of
boundary-layer cooling, this will contribute to increasing
inhibition, with the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet
 (50+ kt around 850 mb) becoming focused over southwestern/south
central Kansas near Medicine Loge.  

However, a corridor of higher moisture content air remains focused
east of the dryline through areas near/just east of the Interstate
35 corridor.  Supported by inflow of this air, with CAPE up to
around 3000 J/kg, ongoing convection may continue to grow upscale
and organize further during the next few hours, and potentially
begin to impact portions of southeastern Kansas/northeastern
Oklahoma as early as 03-05Z.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38399682 37879553 37079548 36369593 35539719 35769820
            36219846 36879823 37409819 38189801 38399682 

Read more

SPC MD 841

MD 0841 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259... FOR CENTRAL TO WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE
MD 0841 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...Central to western SD into the NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

Valid 192340Z - 200115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
continues.

SUMMARY...Primary severe threat exists within the South Dakota
portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. This activity should
spread into parts of north-central South Dakota, where an additional
small watch or local extension may occur. Overall severe threat
appears to have diminished in the Nebraska portion of the watch.

DISCUSSION...While thunderstorms have subsided over the NE portion
of WW 259, several individual cells appear to be growing upscale
into a small MCS from western into central SD. Short-term CAM
guidance suggests an MCV should emanate out of this process and
yield strong to locally severe storms persisting somewhat east of
the watch and beyond the 02Z scheduled expiration. Large hail from
1-1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 55-70 mph will remain the
primary hazards. After dusk, a fairly pronounced gradient in MLCAPE
between central to eastern SD, in conjunction with increasing
nocturnal MLCIN, should result in the severe threat becoming more
isolated/marginal during the late evening over eastern SD.

..Grams.. 05/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   46060075 46079951 45899852 45079831 44569843 44029963
            42900083 42560194 42880244 44720156 45940114 46060075 

Read more

SPC May 19, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OK...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds
and giant hail are expected this afternoon and evening across
portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma.  Gusts of 75-100 mph are
possible, along with very large hail and a few tornadoes.

...20z Update...
No consequential changes to forecast reasoning and current Day 1
Outlook. Main severe risk as depicted by MDT/ENH risks appears to be
steadily unfolding generally as expected, including intense storm
development along the boundary in north-central Kansas, with
higher-based storms also steadily increasing across southeast
Colorado and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Semi-discrete supercells
are still expected before cell mergers/aggregating cold pools lead
to potentially significant severe wind potential across
southwest/central Kansas and nearby northern Oklahoma, which is
consistent with latest WoFS forecasts.

..Guyer.. 05/19/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/

...KS/OK...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern
AZ.  This feature is expected to accelerate eastward this afternoon,
with an associated mid/upper level jet max nosing into the central
High Plains.  This will lead to scattered high-based thunderstorms
over southeast CO by mid-afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds
and hail.  As this activity builds eastward across the dryline,
rapid intensification of supercell storms is expected.  Forecast
soundings show a relatively deep boundary-layer, but large CAPE
values and dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates.  Deep-layer shear
profiles will promote rotating storms capable of very large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two across southwest KS and any
more isolated cells that form southward along the dryline into
western Oklahoma.

As this activity moves eastward, congealing outflows will likely
result in a fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread significant wind
damage for a few hours.  It remains unclear how far east this threat
will persist, but given current model guidance, will not change the
ongoing bounds of the ENH/MDT risk areas in eastern KS.

...Eastern FL...
A surface cold front is sagging southward across the central FL
peninsula today.  Along and ahead of the front, very warm/moist
low-level conditions persist with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s and
strong daytime heating occurring.  It appears likely that at least
scattered thunderstorms will form near/along the east-coast sea
breeze later this afternoon.  Any storm that can intensify before it
moves offshore would potentially acquire supercell characteristics
and pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.  See
mesoscale discussion #829 for further details.

...SD/NE/Northeast CO...
Strong heating is occurring across much of western SD/NE, where
southerly low-level winds are helping to transport 50s dewpoints in
the region.  A weak shortwave trough currently over WY will approach
the region by mid-afternoon, helping to initiate scattered
thunderstorms from the Black Hills region southward into western NE
and northeast CO.  These storms will be relatively high-based, but
in an environment of sufficient vertical shear to promote organized
multicell or supercell structures capable of damaging winds and
hail.  Storms will persist through much of the evening and spread
into central SD/NE before weakening.

Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected
across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during
the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given
increasingly receptive fuels across the region. 

...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western
CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest
midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around
Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale
trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a
dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a
result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally
critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive
fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable
large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude
west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure
gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical
conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this
time.

By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series
of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and
southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more
than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at
this time.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more