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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sun Oct 02 2022
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may continue to impact parts of the southern
Great Basin and northern Great Plains into this evening, with a few
continuing to pose a risk for severe wind and hail.
...01Z Update...
Large-scale mid/upper troughing is only very slowly developing
eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies vicinity, with an
embedded mid-level low forecast to shift east-southeast of the
Montana Rockies through daybreak. Pivoting around the southeastern
through eastern periphery of the low, one smaller-scale short wave
perturbation is enhancing forcing for ascent and shear near/north of
the Black Hills vicinity through the higher plains of eastern
Montana and adjacent western North Dakota. Forcing associated with
another perturbation digging across the southern Great Basin has
supported the evolution of an organizing convective system across
parts of southern/eastern Utah into western Colorado, in the
presence of modest deep-layer shear and instability.
The forward (eastward) propagating portion of the Great Basin
convective system already appears in the process of weakening as
inflow gradually becomes more stable across western Colorado.
However, better instability within the inflow region of convection
developing along trailing convective outflow across southern Utah
may maintain strong to occasionally severe storm development another
couple of hours into early evening.
From the Black Hills vicinity into the southern Montana/North Dakota
border area, weak boundary-layer instability along pre-frontal
surface troughing may also remain sufficient to maintain ongoing
strong to severe storm development into roughly the 02-03Z time
frame
..Kerr.. 10/03/2022
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