Fire Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...

The primary change with this update was to expand the Critical area
north into west-central NM. Here, critical meteorological conditions
are expected, and given a lack of appreciable rainfall over this
area during the last 15-30 days, fuels should become increasingly
receptive to large-fire spread (aided by continued drying today).
Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. For details, see the
previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow will start to strengthen on Monday as a subtropical
shortwave trough approaches the region. A very deeply mixed airmass
(near 500mb) will be in place on Monday. Therefore, some of this
stronger mid-level flow should transport to the surface relatively
easily. A large portion of the Southwest and into the central
Rockies will experience Critical meteorological conditions on
Monday. The current Critical outline represents where the driest
fuels are present. Some expansion of this Critical area may be
needed if guidance comes in stronger with winds and/or if fuels dry
significantly in the next 36 hours. 

Elsewhere, fire weather concerns remain low at this time due to
moist fuels and high relative humidity.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

A prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy conditions is expected
across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains during
the extended forecast period. As a result, elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are expected each afternoon, given
increasingly receptive fuels across the region. 

...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
A broad large-scale trough will be maintained across the western
CONUS through the extended forecast period, with the strongest
midlevel flow generally confined to the Northwest U.S. until around
Day 7/Saturday. Along the southern periphery of the large-scale
trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- where a
dry/deeply mixed boundary layer will develop each afternoon. As a
result, dry/breezy conditions will favor elevated to locally
critical conditions each afternoon, given increasingly receptive
fuels across the region. However, a lack of any identifiable
large-scale features embedded in the low-latitude
west-southwesterlies, and a related modest surface pressure
gradient, limits confidence in any more than locally critical
conditions each day -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this
time.

By Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday, medium-range guidance depicts a series
of southern-stream shortwave troughs crossing the Southwest and
southern High Plains. This may promote higher potential for more
than locally critical conditions, though the details are unclear at
this time.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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