Fire Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

The previous forecast remains on track. The latest guidance
continues to show 1+ inch precipitable water values pivoting around
a mid-level anticyclone across the northwest U.S., providing ample
moisture for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development tomorrow
afternoon and evening, from northern California to the northern
Rockies. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights remain in place for
areas that have the greatest chance of experiencing dry strikes
(particularly on the periphery of storm cores), and where fuels are
critically receptive to fire spread. 

Southerly surface flow will become prevalent across the
central/northern High Plains as surface lee troughing takes shape
tomorrow afternoon and evening. The latest guidance consensus
suggests that minimum RH will range from 15-25% across the western
Dakotas into northwest Nebraska by afternoon peak heating. However,
guidance agreement is not as strong in depicting widespread 15+ mph
sustained surface winds coinciding with the aforementioned surface
RH. Fire weather highlights have been withheld for now, though an
Elevated delineation may be needed in future outlooks should
guidance consensus trend windier.

..Squitieri.. 07/26/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

Moisture will increase across the Northwest and northern Rockies on
Tuesday. A few weak mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move
northward from California and across eastern Oregon and Idaho. These
may provide ample lift for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms throughout the day. PWAT values are forecast to be as
high as 1.25 inches in some areas which may limit the ignition
threat somewhat. However, fuels are near record dry across most of
this area and thus will be very susceptible to any lightning. In
addition, forecast soundings show LCLs around 4km with a mostly dry
sub-cloud layer which should evaporate some of the falling rainfall
and may lead to gusty and erratic surface winds.

...Please see for graphic product...

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