Tropical Sea Temperatures


Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


Graphical outlook

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 022341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.
The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward
or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization
in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands. Further development of the wave
is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph,
reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 02 Oct 2022 23:50:49 GMT


    

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022350
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Orlene, which is approaching Las Islas Marias near southwestern
Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two as the system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a disorganized area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during
the next several days. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn
northwestward after midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Hurricane Orlene (EP1/EP162022)

...ORLENE NEARING ISLAS MARIAS... ...SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY TO BEGIN  SHORTLY...
 As of 6:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 2
 the center of Orlene was located near 20.9, -106.8
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 972 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Orlene Public Advisory Number 17A

Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022  
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 022349
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
...ORLENE NEARING ISLAS MARIAS...
...SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY TO BEGIN 
SHORTLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 106.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 106.8 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later tonight.  On the forecast
track, the center of Orlene will pass near or over Las Islas Marias 
tonight, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning
area on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is expected during the next day or
so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it
passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it
reaches southwestern Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight, 
with tropical storm conditions ongoing.  Hurricane conditions are 
expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico on 
Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the 
tropical storm warning area through early Monday.  Hurricane 
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within 
the hurricane watch area tonight into early Monday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area 
tonight.
 
RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:
 
* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.
 
These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast 
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the 
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next 
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022  
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 022034
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  75SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 107.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022  
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022035
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
Although the satellite presentation of Orlene is not as impressive 
as it was overnight, the center is still embedded within an area of 
cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius.  The eye is 
also not as defined in conventional satellite imagery as earlier 
today, but an Air Force Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that 
made two passes through the center earlier this afternoon reported 
a closed 22 n-mi-wide eye on its final pass. The aircraft measured 
a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 96 kt, and SFMR winds of 92 kt.  
Since the plane only made a couple passes through the eastern 
eyewall, the intensity is set at 100 kt, owing to some 
undersampling.
 
It has been difficult to determine if today's weakening was caused 
by an eyewall replacement cycle, the increase in southwesterly 
shear, or a combination of both.  Regardless, southwesterly 
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase during the next 12 to 
24 hours, which is expected to cause an additional reduction in 
wind speed, plus the entrainment of some drier mid-level air to the 
west of Orlene.  Orlene still is forecast to pass near or over the 
Islas Marias as a strong hurricane tonight, and reach the coast of 
mainland Mexico as a hurricane by on Monday. After landfall, rapid 
weakening is expected, and the low-level center should dissipate 
over the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico in 48-60 hours.
 
Satellite imagery and fixes from the aircraft show that Orlene is
still moving northward or 005/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy 
is unchanged from before.  Orlene should bend north-northeastward 
tonight as it is steered between a mid-level ridge to its east and 
a broad trough over northwestern Mexico.   The track guidance is in 
much better agreement this cycle, and the NHC forecast was only 
nudged slightly westward to be closer to the various consensus 
aids.

The updated track and wind radii forecast has necessitated the 
issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of mainland 
Mexico to the northwest of the Hurricane Warning area.  No other 
changes were made to the existing wind warnings. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central 
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday 
with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Preparations 
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding in 
the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico in the 
warning area in regions of onshore winds.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, 
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of 
southwest Mexico through Tuesday.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 20.4N 106.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Hurricane Orlene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 022035
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   50 76  12(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
ISLAS MARIAS   64 37  19(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 
MAZATLAN       34  5  70(75)  12(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
MAZATLAN       50  X  16(16)  18(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
MAZATLAN       64  X   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN BLAS       34 15  26(41)   3(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
SAN BLAS       50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
SAN BLAS       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
P VALLARTA     34  7   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Hurricane Orlene Graphics


Hurricane Orlene 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 23:48:50 GMT

Hurricane Orlene 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 21:22:36 GMT