Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Wed, Jun 16, 2021 - Thu, Jun 17, 2021 D7Sat, Jun 19, 2021 - Sun, Jun 20, 2021
D5Thu, Jun 17, 2021 - Fri, Jun 18, 2021 D8Sun, Jun 20, 2021 - Mon, Jun 21, 2021
D6Fri, Jun 18, 2021 - Sat, Jun 19, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion



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