000
FXUS61 KOKX 020846
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
446 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening upper level low along the New England coast this
morning will gradually pull away from the area today. A back
door cold front will then pass through on Friday, followed by
weak high pressure for the weekend. A weak frontal system
approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expect a bit of a respite today from the convection associated
with an upper low over New England the last couple of days. The
latter of which will gradually pull away from the area today
with some drier air and building heights. HiRes models still
hinting at some widely scattered convection during the mid to
late afternoon across the interior. Outside of a seabreeze and
differential heating, there is not much of a trigger with high a
LFC due to drier air in the low levels.

The bigger story will be a noticeably warmer day with less cloud
cover as high temperatures get well into the 80s with a few
lower 90s across the interior and possibly NYC. The immediate
coast will be a bit cooler with an afternoon seabreeze kicking
in. It will also be less humid with dew points possibly dropping
into the 50s in some spots this afternoon (although forecast in
the lower 60s).

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean
beaches today due to a continued SE swell.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect a manly clear, seasonable night tonight with lows
generally in the 60s, with a few 50s possible in some of the
normally colder locations.

A blocking pattern featuring a high amplitude ridge across the
mid section of the country will allow for some amplification of
an upper trough across eastern Canada. In turn, this will send
a backdoor cold front and building high over the Canadian
maritimes southeast into the area Friday into Saturday. The
cold front will work from NE to SW late Friday morning into the
early evening hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely, which will work west in the afternoon.
The axis of greatest instability looks to be across the
interior, especially north and west of NYC, where temperatures
will once again get into the upper 80s and possibly 90 on
Friday. SPC has placed this area under a marginal risk for
Friday with the main threat being damaging winds (5 percent).
Shear is marginal, so any severe is likely to be of the pulse
type.

The cold front works west of the area Friday night with widely
scattered showers possible overnight into Saturday morning with
some shortwave energy in the NW flow aloft. However, expect a
mainly dry 4th of July with a considerably cooler airmass in
place with an easterly flow due to high pressure along the New
England coast. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s, which is a few degrees below normal.

There remains a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic
Ocean beaches on Friday due to a SE swell.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High temperatures Sunday will moderate slightly with a widely
scattered convection possibly inland in the afternoon.

By early next week, a stronger shortwave moves through the Great
Lakes by Tuesday. At the surface, a warm front pushes through
the area Monday into Tuesday, which may just wash out. Temperatures
are seasonable with a slight warm up expected by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level low along the northeast coast will begin to
weaken and drift east Thursday.

VFR. Patchy fog and stratus at the outlying terminals over eastern
Long Island and southeastern Connecticut are possible overnight, and
IFR conditions may occur toward morning at the these terminals.

VFR Thursday for most of the forecast area with isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly after 16Z and through the lower Hudson Valley
and northeastern New Jersey.

Light and variable winds through the morning though there may be a
NW light flow. South winds from the developing sea breezes are
expected once again during Thursday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night...VFR. Slight chance of shwrs and tstms east of the
New York City early in the evening.
.Fri...Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible.
.Sat...Mainly VFR. Isold shwrs and tstms possible mainly wrn arpts.
.Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible, especially
wrn areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions should remain below SCA levels across all waters
through the weekend with a weak low pressure system drifting
south and east of the waters and high pressure building in from
the Canadian maritimes. Winds may gust up to 20kts for a short
period Saturday afternoon across the ocean waters due to the
gradient between the high and low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms that occur
over the forecast period, but widespread hydrologic issues are
not anticipated.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of a SE swell and increasing astronomical tides
will bring waters levels across western Long Island Sound and
the south shore back bays of western Long Island close to minor
coastal flood benchmarks during the evening high tide cycles
through the upcoming weekend. Based on Steven`s NYHOPS-E being
overdone the last few high tide cycles and considering it`s
coarser SNAP-Ex being better, preference is toward a blend with
the lower ETSS and ESTOFS. This keeps waters levels just below
minor tonight. That being said, guidance all indicates a gradual
uptick through the week due to the approaching full moon. Thus,
there is the potential for a statement or an advisory level
event as we head into Friday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/DBR
AVIATION...DJ
MARINE...DJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//
EQUIPMENT...//

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion