000
FXUS61 KOKX 161137
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves out into the western Atlantic today as a
warm front approaches today and moves through tonight. A weak
cold front moves into the region Wednesday night, interacting
with remnant moisture from Barry, and slowly passes to the south
through Thursday night. High pressure centered over the
southeast will dominate into the weekend. Another weak cold
front moves slowly through the area Saturday night through
Sunday night. The front will remain in the vicinity into early
next week as waves of low pressure move through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update was to current conditions of dew points, which were
running a little under current forecast, and temperatures.

Upper level ridge axis approaches today and moves east of the
area tonight. Mostly dry weather is expected outside of an isold
shower/tstm well NW of NYC this eve, then to all locations
tonight as a warm front lifts through. CAM`s are in good
agreement with this idea. Otherwise, hot and humid weather
returns with H85 temps between 16-18C and widespread dewpoints
in the 60s. Highs of upper 80s to lower 90s will be common
across the Tri-State Area, slightly cooler on the forks of LI
and coastal SE CT. Heat index values will be similar with
dewpoints only in the 60s. Seabreeze development may bring
slight relief at the immediate coast.

Muggy conditions are expected tonight with the warm front moving
through and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s and
low temperatures only in the 70s.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Heights will being to fall on Wed as an upper trough containing
the remnant energy/moisture of Barry approach the area. With the
warm front forecast to be east of the area Wed morning, the
first half of the day should be dry. As we enter the aftn and
boundary layer heating is maximized, the atmosphere is forecast
to become moderately unstable with steepening 0-3km lapse rates.
A pre-frontal/thermal trough developing ahead of a weak cold
front will likely be the trigger for sct convection. Some of the
convection may produce strong gusty winds. This activity will
begin in a weakly sheared environment with the potential for
slow moving storms and localized flash flooding in this sub
tropical environment with PWATS aoa 2 inches.

Highs of upper 80s to lower 90s will again be common across the
area, however dewpoints in the lower 70s will make it feel like
mid to upper 90s in the NJ metro area and lower 90s at most
other locations. Only fly in the ointment is the potential for
dewpoints to mix out during peak heating which would result in
lower heat index values.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold frontal boundary will be moving into the region
Wednesday night, as an upper shortwave, the remnant energy from
Barry, moves out of the Ohio Valley, passing through the region
Thursday and then offshore Thursday night. The frontal boundary will
also be slow to move through and may even dissipate Thursday as a
weak wave of low pressure develops along the DELMARVA late Thursday.
Tropical moisture interacting with the front will produce locally
heavy rainfall, with rather slow moving convective elements. With
weak instability and CAPE Wednesday night into Thursday will mention
just a chance of thunder, rather than likely. Initially steep lapse
rates will also be weakening Wednesday night. With the slow moving
front and frontal wave, have kept probabilities through Thursday
night.

With the shortwave to the east by Friday heights will be rising as a
sub tropical high builds into the region. This high will then
dominate into Saturday with some of the highest heat and humidity of
the summer season. Temperatures at 850mb will be near 23 degrees
Celsius both days. There is uncertainty as to the development of
convection both Friday and Saturday. Energy will be passing to the
north and convection may develop around the periphery of the sub
tropical high.

A northern stream trough will be sinking into the region Sunday and
Sunday night with a backdoor cold front moving into the region.
There is some uncertainty as to the timing of this front. At this
time will maintain the heat and humidity into Sunday, although,
temperatures will be slightly lower.

Again, there is uncertainty as to how far south the frontal boundary
will move into early next week as the GFS digs a large trough into
the Gulf coast states, while the ECMWF has a much weak trough. At
this time will be keeping the boundary in the vicinity as waves of
low pressure track along the boundary into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the forecast period.

Light and variable winds early this morning, become W/SW around
5-8 kt by late morning, then to around 10kt by afternoon.
Coastal sea breezes are likely this afternoon. Some occasional
gusts into the mid teens are possible this afternoon. Winds
lighten this evening into tonight.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of afternoon seabreeze may be off by an
hour.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of afternoon seabreeze may be off by an
hour. An occasional gust into the teens is possible this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: A few occasional gusts may be higher than
forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: An occasional gust into the teens is possible
this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of afternoon seabreeze may be off by an
hour.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of afternoon seabreeze may be off by an
hour.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR early Wednesday, then a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening with MVFR conditions possible.
.Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR...an isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible late afternoon/evening on each day.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes were made to the current winds and seas. A
relatively weak pressure gradient will be across the forecast
waters through Saturday with winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall
Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rainfall then continuing through
Thursday night. Urban, low lying, and poor drainage flooding will be
most likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, although there is the
potential for localized flash flooding, mainly Wed aftn/eve due
to slow moving storms. Storm motion increases Wed night
resulting in a decreasing threat for flash flooding. Rainfall
may total 1 to 1 1/2 inches with locally higher amounts.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

The Riverhead NOAA Weather Radio station WXM80 (162.475 MHz) is
out of service. The estimated time of return to service is 4 pm
local time this afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion