000
FXUS61 KOKX 191536
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1036 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Nova Scotia will continue moving away into the
Canadian Maritimes today as high pressure builds into the
central states. Th high will slowly in from west, settling over
the region by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Deep layered weakly cyclonic flow will persist today as energy
continues to rotate through the upper level longwave trough.
Meanwhile a low level and surface trough will remain across
southern New England into the lower Hudson Valley as low
pressure pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes. Moisture
remains and with energy coming through the upper trough this
afternoon skies will be mostly cloudy NW of NYC, with chance of
a few flurries inland. Gusty downslope NW flow appears to be
holding off clouds from NYC metro east, so have gone with a more
optimistic mostly sunny sky forecast there.

Heights begin to rise early this evening as the trough weakens
and the parent low moves well to the northeast, and ridging
builds to the west.

Temperatures will remain near or above seasonal levels, as
Arctic cold does not arrive until later tonight into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The 500mb trough will remain as an Alberta clipper rotates
through the Central states. However, ridging will continue to
build as surface high pressure slides to the southeast. Arctic
cold moves into the area later tonight and Monday with below
normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The Canadian high continues to build slowly, reaching the area
by mid to late week. The core of the Arctic cold will remain to
our southwest, and by Wednesday temperatures begin to moderate,
rising back to above normal by late week. The area sits between
the departing low well to the northeast, and the high across
the Midwest, resulting in a cold and gusty N/NW wind through
Monday night. These chilly winds begin to abate Tuesday as the
pressure gradient relaxes.

Upper northern stream trough over the northeast, with digging
shortwave that rounds the base of the trough and passes well
to the south by mid week. Ridge builds thereafter ahead of next
trough that approaches by next weekend.

Dry weather will remain Monday night through late in the week.

Temps aloft should be too warm for anything but rain by next
Saturday. If temps are initially too cold, dependent on when
precip arrives, some freezing rain is possible.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure moves towards the Canadian Maritimes as high
pressure builds to the west through tonight.

VFR conditions through the TAF period. BKN ceilings 035 to 050
kft should overspread the region through the afternoon. A few
flurries are possible in the afternoon mainly across the Lower
Hudson valley.

NW winds increase this morning and become 12-17 kt with gusts
20-25 kt through the evening. The direction may average around 310
magnetic at city terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA in effect for all waters, and has been extended through
Monday afternoon for the ocean and into early Mon morning
elsewhere, W-NW winds gust up to 25-30 kt. Higher winds on the
Sound will be mostly closer to shore today, then become
widespread tonight. Cannot rule out an occasional gust up to 35
kt on the outer ocean waters tonight, not widespread or of long
enough duration to warrant a gale warning.

Waters should then remain below advisory criteria all of next
week owing to a surface high pressure system that builds into
the forecast area. Generally light north winds of 5-10 kt with
seas 1-2 feet through Friday. South winds after Friday expected
ahead of the next system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/19
NEAR TERM...Goodman/19
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM...19/PW
AVIATION...DJ/16/DS
MARINE...Goodman/DJ/16
HYDROLOGY...19
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion