000
FXUS61 KOKX 241044
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
544 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass to the south through this evening, then
weaken later tonight into Saturday as offshore low pressure
passes well to the southeast and as a cold front approaches from
the west. The front will move through Saturday night, followed
by high pressure from Sunday through Tuesday. Another cold front
will move across on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level trough, and H8 positive theta-e advection with
associated moisture trapped under an inversion, are combining
to produce some clouds well inland. Grids show some eastward
expansion before daybreak, then gradual clearing through the
morning as the inversion weakens. Elsewhere skies will be sunny.
High temps are the warmer of the GFS/NAM MOS numbers, with
upper 40s and lower 50s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Skies will remain clear tonight, with just some high thin
cirrus at most. Winds should be light, but with light SW sfc
flow and WAA off the deck do not expect temps to be as cold as
those of tonight, except well inland and in the Pine Barrens of
Long Island. A wide range of low temps expected, ranging from
the lower 40s in NYC, to 30s in the burbs and along the coast,
and 20s in the colder spots mentioned above.

On Sat, the approaching cold front will be preceded by an
increase in afternoon clouds from NYC north/west, and maybe
some sprinkles well inland. Farther east, skies should remain
mostly sunny, with high temps nearing 60 across Long Island and
possibly SE CT, with mid 50s for NYC metro, and only lower 50s
NW of there due to cloud cover.

Better chances for showers will exist Sat night out east as the
front moves across, and as its associated upper trough
amplifies, with better lift via coupled upper jet streaks. Low
temps after fropa should be around 40 in NYC and along the
coast, and in the 30s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build in from Sunday through Tuesday. High
temperatures 45-50 both Sunday and Monday should increase to
the lower/mid 50s by Tuesday, which is above normal for this
time of year.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Moisture associated with this front is expected
to dissipate as it approaches our area and the frontal passage
may end up being precipitation free. Even with the frontal
passage, temperatures are forecast to be above normal into
Wednesday.

High pressure builds back on Thursday with high temperatures in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build to the south today, moving
east tonight.

VFR through the TAF period. WNW-W flow gradually becomes SW/S
this afternoon, continuing into tonight. Wind speeds remaining
below 10 KT, but occasional gusts to mid teens possible for
south coastal terminals tonight.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing may be off by 1 to 2
hours.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing may be off by 1 to 2
hours.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing may be off by 1 to 2
hours.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing may be off by 1 to 2
hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday-Saturday Night...Low chance of -SHRA and MVFR with frontal
passage Sat Eve. SW gusts 15 to 20 kt possible Saturday. Windshift
from SW to NW late afternoon/evening. NW Gusts 20-30KT late Saturday
night, with an isolated rain/snow shower possible.
.Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR. W winds G15-25kt.
.Tuesday...VFR. SW winds G15-25kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas out east could approach 5 ft tonight via combo of SW
winds increasing to near 15 kt and incoming SE swell. Confidence
in this is not high, so have capped seas during that time at 4
ft for now, and will reassess later today.

A better chance for SCA conds will exist Sat afternoon and
evening as SW flow increases to near 20 kt, then later Sat night
into Sunday on all waters, with post-frontal NW flow gusting to
25-30 kt. Wind gusts could briefly approach gale force on the
outer ocean waters early Sunday morning. Minimal SCA conds
could continue on the ocean into Sunday night or Monday morning,
then return on Tue ahead of the next frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...Goodman
HYDROLOGY...Goodman

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion