000
FXUS61 KOKX 201030
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
630 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure remains positioned over the entire
Northeast through Monday and shifts to the southwest of the
region Tuesday. The high weakens late in the week as a trough
approaches New York.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High clouds have become a little more widespread across the
region as an upper tough moves into the area. Forecast on track
with only minor changes for current conditions.

A cool and dry airmass remains through today as temperatures
continue to remain up to 10 degrees below normal. With nearly
clear skies inland and light winds with temperatures in the mid
30s, areas of frost are likely and a frost advisory remains in
effect until 800 AM EDT for Orange and Putnam counties.

There is a high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
With surface high pressure remaining across northern New England
and extending into the Mid Atlantic states, conditions will
remain similar to the previous days. With light winds and clear
skies once again, temperatures inland will fall to the mid and
upper 30s. Patchy to areas of frost will be likely and another
Frost Advisory may be needed for portions of the interior.
Temperatures to begin to modify somewhat Monday with nearly
clear skies.

A high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches continues
through 800 PM Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A 1032mb high pressure system over New England will gradually
weaken Monday night. This high, coupled with the subsidence
from an approaching upper level ridge axis will keep skies clear
through the first half of the week. Though some de-
amplification of the ridge occurs as Teddy the offshore tropical
system nears the Canadian Maritimes, locally this will only
result in northeast winds becoming northwesterly late Tuesday as
the surface high shifts into the southeastern states. Coastal
effects as a result of the storm`s proximity will have to be
monitored closely. Elevated seas and surf could continue into
early Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the ocean
beaches through Monday night, and may need to be extended into
Tuesday.

Dry conditions continue into mid week. The aforementioned high
pressure system shifts into the Appalachians with persistent
northwest winds expected into Thursday. The northwest upper level
flow may advect in a few cirrus clouds overhead but other than that
no rain in the forecast. The first hint of slight rain chances
occurs with the next long wave trough late Thursday into Friday. It
will be difficult for precipitation in this environment with models
showing precipitable water values between 0.70 and 1.10 inches. It
is possible and falling moisture would evaporate in the dry mid
level air. Timing of frontal passage varies model to model but
general consensus is late Friday into Saturday.

High surf, beach erosion, and beach flooding are likely into
Tuesday. Refer to Tides/Coastal Flooding section below for
additional details.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure continues to gradually build in from the
northwest.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
remain in a N-NE flow.

Wind speeds will be mainly between 6-10 kt into daybreak, and
under 5 kts at KSWF. Gusts are expected to re-develop in the
morning at most terminals, around 13-14z. Gusts may be
occasional at times. Any gusts should subside later in the
afternoon towards 20-21z. Sustained winds will be near 10 kt for
tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Any wind gusts late morning and afternoon may be more occasional
than frequent.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Late tonight and Monday...VFR. NE winds decrease to mainly
5-10 kt at night, and become closer to 10-15 kt g20 kt during
the daytime.
.Tuesday...VFR. NW winds with gusts to 20 kt.
.Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts across the ocean waters were a few knots higher,
especially east of Moriches Inlet, than forecast and adjusted
speeds through this morning. Otherwise no changes were made to
winds and seas. Occasional nearshore gusts may reach SCA levels
today across the Long Island bays, and will not issue a SCA at
this time.

Sub SCA conditions remain on the non ocean waters through
Thursday. For the ocean waters a SCA remains in effect through
at least Tuesday as seas remain elevated due to swells from
Hurricane Teddy passing well east of the forecast waters Tuesday
and into the Canadian Maritimes mid week. Refer to the National
Hurricane Center for official forecasts concerning Teddy. Wind
gusts to SCA levels are also likely on the ocean waters,
especially east of Fire Island Inlet with a increasing pressure
gradient between the high pressure and with the approach of
Hurricane Teddy. Small craft conditions will likely remain on
the ocean waters into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry and cool airmass will remain in place today and Monday as
high pressure remains centered over northern New England. Winds
today will be gusting as high as 25 mph, especially across
southeastern Connecticut and the coast.cRelative humidity will
lower to 25 to 30 percent. With low fuel moisture and the gusty
winds today have issued a Special Weather Statement for
Connecticut.

Dry and gusty conditions will continue into Monday and Tuesday
as high pressure remains across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological concerns are anticipated through the entire
forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically, with a recent new moon, tides are running
higher. Persistent high pressure based in Northern New England
giving persistent NE flow and Hurricane Teddy well out in the
Atlantic giving long period swell will make for rough ocean
conditions through early next week, including high surf,
dangerous rip currents and mainly minor coastal flooding. Surge
builds with the piling of water to allow for around 0.5 to 1.5
ft departures above astronomical, which is enough to cause minor
coastal flooding.

Moderate coastal flooding is a possibility for the ocean
shoreline but mainly for the South Shore Bays of Nassau and
Queens for Tuesday into Wednesday during high tide cycles with
more tidal piling of water from the lingering long period swell
and thereby inherent restrictions on tidal drainage.

Current hazards are as follows:

High surf advisory continues along Southern parts of Long
Island and NYC adjacent to the Atlantic in effect until 6AM
Tuesday. Wave heights of 6 to 12 ft are forecast. Widespread
dune erosion and scattered overwashes expected for the ocean
beachfront today through Monday night.

High rip current risk continues for all Atlantic Ocean beaches in
effect until 8PM Monday. This is mostly because of the large long
period swells.

Coastal Flood Advisory for Lower NY Harbor and South Shore Bays of
Nassau and Queens from 9AM until 2PM today. Widespread minor coastal
flooding is expected.

Coastal Flood Advisory for Southern parts of Westchester and
Fairfield from 1PM to 3PM today. Widespread minor coastal flooding
is expected.

Coastal Flood Statements for the rest of Long Island shorelines
until 4PM today. Isolated minor coastal flooding is expected.

Coastal Flood Statements for South Shore Bays of Nassau and Queens
for high tide cycles tonight from 10PM until 1AM. Isolated minor
coastal flooding is expected.

The high surf of 8-12 ft today into Monday night, which combined
with elevated water levels during the times of high tide will likely
result in significant and widespread erosion and damage to dune
structures. In addition, scattered overwashes are likely, resulting
in minor to moderate flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures
behind protective dunes. This is depicted in the NOAA/USGS Coastal
Change Forecast Viewer, which is showing potential for an erosion
and overwash event close to what was seen the October 10th 2019
Nor`easter and possibly during Hurricane Jose swell event.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 3 PM EDT this afternoon
     for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 3 PM EDT this afternoon
     for NYZ071.
     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DJ/MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion