Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 0100Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 240038
SWODY1
SPC AC 240037

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN SD/NE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will persist this evening primarily
over a portion of the central and northern High Plains. Other strong
storms over the southern High Plains will persist through mid
evening. Downburst winds and large hail are the primary threats.

...Central and northern High Plains...

Storms that developed over the higher terrain of CO and WY are
moving into the high plains of western NE and southwest SD. Activity
is embedded within modest deep layer flow with 35-40 kt effective
bulk shear supportive of a few organized structures and mid-level
updraft rotation with any discrete cells. The strengthening
nocturnal low-level jet may promote one or two clusters of storms
persisting through the evening into parts of NE and SD with a threat
for a few strong to damaging gusts and hail before a gradual
weakening trend occurs due to stabilization of the boundary layer.

...Southern High Plains...

Storms moving off the higher terrain and into the High Plains are
embedded within  weak flow aloft and are currently moving through
the corridor of maximum instability across eastern NM and southwest
TX. Threat for downburst winds may persist through a couple more
hours. However, warm air at the base of the EML will result in a
substantial increase in convective inhibition as the surface layer
cools suggesting storms should begin to undergo a gradual increase
in intensity this evening.

..Dial.. 05/24/2018

$$