Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 151604
SWODY1
SPC AC 151602

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two may occur from late
this morning through afternoon over portions of near-coastal eastern
North Carolina.

...Eastern NC...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Latest
surface analysis shows a deepening surface low just off the NC coast
near Cape Fear, with a warm front extending eastward out to sea. 
Several significant supercells are noted on radar along this
boundary.  Observational trends suggest that destabilization over
eastern NC is occurring slightly slower than anticipated due to this
widespread convection.  The back edge of the convection is also
progressing eastward faster than guidance.  Present indications are
that the Outer Banks and coastal counties of far eastern NC may be
briefly in the warm sector this afternoon.  If this occurs, very
strong low-level shear will pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado in any persistent convective core.  However, the
area and time period of potential is decreasing.

..Hart/Kerr.. 11/15/2018

$$