SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 24 10:26:02 UTC 2017

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 24 10:26:02 UTC 2017.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 24 10:26:02 UTC 2017.

SPC Nov 24, 2017 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


Thunderstorms are not currently expected across the contiguous
United States on Sunday.

Late this weekend, a rather amplified mid-level trough will approach
the Pacific Coast, resulting in a slow eastward progression of a
downstream ridge towards the Plains. Meanwhile, broad cyclonic flow
will remain established from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Along
the western periphery of this cyclonic regime, rising heights aloft
will help maintain surface ridging and a dry/continental air mass
east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm development. 

Farther west, cooling mid-level temperatures late in the period (in
association with the aforementioned trough) will likely yield weak
buoyancy sufficient for showers over parts of northern California
and southern Oregon. While a lightning strike or two may occur near
the coast, forecast soundings suggest the depth of buoyancy will be
too marginal for the introduction of a general-thunder area at this

..Picca.. 11/24/2017

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SPC Nov 24, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of
the synoptic pattern in the D4/Monday-D8/Friday time frame,
medium-range guidance shows some agreement in the general evolution
around the middle of the week. Indeed, a potentially closed cyclone
will migrate eastward from the Four Corners to the southern/central
Plains D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, with this migration in response
to an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest. As the impulse
reaches the central US, it may be accompanied by some thunderstorm
activity, with forecast soundings suggesting weak elevated buoyancy.
However, low-level moisture return will be considerably hampered by
early-week ridging in the wake of a shortwave trough advancing
southeast over the Gulf. Therefore, despite the presence of vigorous
mid-level wind fields, the potential for any substantive
destabilization (and related severe potential) appears low at this

Thereafter, the upstream trough may push eastward across the central
US through the end of the week. However, once again, low-level
moisture will probably be quite limited, tempering any severe

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur in the Texas South Plains this
afternoon along a weak, southward-moving cold front. 
Westerly/downslope flow will increase south and west of this low,
elevating fire weather concerns across that region.  Farther north,
dry low-level flow and cool conditions will prevail across the High
Plains.  Meanwhile, an expansive anticyclone across the
Intermountain West will set up an offshore pressure gradient across
coastal ranges of southern California, resulting in localized gusty
winds there.

...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains...
Westerly flow will increase into the 10-20 mph range during the
afternoon with a few higher gusts - especially in east-central New
Mexico.  Vertical mixing and downslope will foster lowering RH (into
the 12-20% range) amidst near-record-high surface temperatures and
areas of dry fuels.  Elevated fire weather conditions are expected -
especially within the delineated area.  Critical thresholds may be
exceeded on a brief and localized basis across a few areas of
east-central New Mexico.

...Coastal Ranges of southern California...
The aforementioned offshore pressure gradient will foster areas of
gusty northerly/northeasterly surface flow throughout the forecast
period - especially near terrain favored areas.  Although warm
temperatures (mid 80s to low 90s F) will become common by
mid-afternoon, RH values are expected to remain above critical
thresholds and only fall to around 20% in very localized areas. 
These conditions preclude areal highlights - although locally
elevated fire weather conditions can be expected especially during
peak heating hours.

...Western South Dakota southward to Western Kansas...
Northerly/northwesterly flow will increase across the region through
peak heating hours as RH values fall to between 25-35%.  Surface
temperatures will increase to the mid 50s F in the Dakotas, and near
70F in north-central Kansas.  Locally/briefly elevated fire weather
conditions will develop during the afternoon  - especially where
fuels are dry.

..Cook.. 11/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


A more quiescent fire weather pattern is expected Saturday.  High
pressure - initially centered across the Great Basin - will shift
southeastward into the Plains while weakening slightly throughout
the day.  Meanwhile, a stronger low-pressure area over the
northeastern Pacific will begin to influence much of the West,
leading to an onshore flow pattern across dry areas of southern
California.  Additionally, the aforementioned high-pressure area
will aid in cooler air filtering into the Plains, with higher RH
values limiting fire weather concerns. 

Given the overall unfavorable pattern for large-scale fire weather,
no areas will be delineated for this outlook.

..Cook.. 11/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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