No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 28 17:45:02 UTC 2024.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 28 17:45:02 UTC 2024.
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS....
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with
the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few
tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas.
...East TX/LA/Southern AR...
A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight
has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX.
Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the
east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and
little inhibition. This will result in rejuvenation of storms by
mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary. Forecast
soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for
supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward through the
evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind
gusts and isolated tornadoes.
...OK/AR/MO...
The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across
much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud
cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s. Many of
the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to
this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late
afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at
this time. Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK
seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and
a tornado or two from this activity. Storms that form will spread
eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening.
..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Several strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
from parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper trough will shift northeastward out of the upper
MS Valley and Great Lakes, while a southern-stream wave moves
quickly east across TX and the lower MS Valley. Weak low pressure
will exist over WI in association with the northern system, with a
front roughly from Lake MI into northern OK by 00Z. South of this
front, low-level moisture and instability will exist over much of
the southern Texas into the lower MS Valley, with early day storms
likely near the Sabine Valley.
Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies, possibly with strong wind gusts
associated with high-based convection over parts of MT.
...TX into LA...
An MCS is forecast near the Sabine Valley early Monday, and this
will likely move quickly out of TX and across southern LA. Damaging
winds will be possible with this system given the expected high
degree of organization. However, it may also progress farther than
currently forecast, reducing land area for severe storm coverage
prior to 12Z Monday. Favorable southerly winds around 850 mb as well
as enhanced midlevel westerlies will support both damaging gust
potential as well as possible QLCS tornado risk prior to the system
moving offshore. Given the high dependency on the previous days
storm evolution, predictability is a bit low for higher wind
probabilities at this time.
Farther west into central TX, it is uncertain how many storms will
form during the afternoon, if any. Isolated activity cannot be ruled
out at peak heating during the late afternoon, and perhaps if any
residual boundaries trail westward from the early day storms.
...Central and eastern MT...
Steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold front as a potent
shortwave trough pushes east with rapid height falls across MT.
Moisture and instability will be limited but minimal CAPE, a deeply
mixed boundary layer and increasing deep-layer mean winds may
support a few convective showers or thunderstorms capable of
enhancing wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 04/28/2024
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
No changes. See previous discussion below.
..Bentley.. 04/28/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon
across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of
increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface
troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to
around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high
as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion
of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but
given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire
area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated
winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying
on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should
remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at
this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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