SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261

WW 261 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 270425Z - 271000Z
      
WW 0261 Image
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and eastern Kansas
  North-central Oklahoma

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1125 PM
  until 500 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Well-developed bowing squall line should rapidly race
northeast across a large part of Kansas and northern Oklahoma
overnight. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard, although
embedded significant severe wind and a brief tornado are possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east southeast
of Enid OK to 30 miles north northeast of Concordia KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 257...WW 258...WW
259...WW 260...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
23055.

...Grams

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SPC Tornado Watch 259

WW 259 TORNADO OK TX 270055Z - 270700Z
      
WW 0259 Image
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Oklahoma
  Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 755 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Bowing squall line will move northeast across the
Panhandles this evening, with a discrete supercell or two trailing
south of the line. Damaging winds should be the most widespread
hazard, but tornadoes and large hail are possible as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Lubbock TX
to 110 miles northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252...WW 253...WW
254...WW 255...WW 256...WW 257...WW 258...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 22045.

...Grams

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261 Status Reports

WW 0261 Status Updates
      
WW 0261 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W AVK TO
35 W ICT TO 10 NE HUT TO 25 NNW SLN TO 35 SSE HSI.

..BROYLES..05/27/19

ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...OUN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC015-017-019-027-029-035-041-049-061-073-077-079-111-113-115-
117-127-143-149-157-161-169-173-191-197-201-270840-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUTLER               CHASE               CHAUTAUQUA          
CLAY                 CLOUD               COWLEY              
DICKINSON            ELK                 GEARY               
GREENWOOD            HARPER              HARVEY              
LYON                 MCPHERSON           MARION              
MARSHALL             MORRIS              OTTAWA              
POTTAWATOMIE         REPUBLIC            RILEY               
SALINE               SEDGWICK            SUMNER              
WABAUNSEE            WASHINGTON          


OKC003-047-053-071-093-270840-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA              GARFIELD            GRANT               
KAY                  MAJOR               

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 Status Reports

WW 0260 Status Updates
      
WW 0260 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW AVK
TO 45 E DDC TO 45 NE DDC.

..SMITH..05/27/19

ATTN...WFO...DDC...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC007-033-047-051-097-135-145-151-165-185-195-270520-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER               COMANCHE            EDWARDS             
ELLIS                KIOWA               NESS                
PAWNEE               PRATT               RUSH                
STAFFORD             TREGO               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 259 Status Reports

WW 0259 Status Updates
      
WW 0259 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..BROYLES..05/27/19

ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 259 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC045-059-129-151-153-270740-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ELLIS                HARPER              ROGER MILLS         
WOODS                WOODWARD            


TXC011-065-087-129-179-211-233-295-375-381-393-483-270740-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARMSTRONG            CARSON              COLLINGSWORTH       
DONLEY               GRAY                HEMPHILL            
HUTCHINSON           LIPSCOMB            POTTER              
RANDALL              ROBERTS             WHEELER             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 Status Reports

WW 0258 Status Updates
      
WW 0258 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MRB
TO 15 ENE BWI TO 15 SW ILG.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826

..SQUITIERI..05/27/19

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

DEC001-005-270340-

DE 
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 SUSSEX              


DCC001-270340-

DC 
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 


MDC003-009-011-017-021-029-033-035-037-041-043-270340-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         CALVERT             CAROLINE            
CHARLES              FREDERICK           KENT                
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SPC Tornado Watch 254 Status Reports

WW 0254 Status Updates
      
WW 0254 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 254

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW AMA TO
25 WSW AMA TO 10 SSW GUY TO 15 ESE EHA.

WW 254 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z.

..SMITH..05/27/19

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 254 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC139-270300-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

TEXAS                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 253 Status Reports

WW 0253 Status Updates
      
WW 0253 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 253

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E EHA TO
35 E LAA TO 20 SW MCK.

WW 253 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z.

..SMITH..05/27/19

ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 253 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC039-063-065-075-101-109-129-137-153-171-179-187-193-203-
270300-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DECATUR              GOVE                GRAHAM              
HAMILTON             LANE                LOGAN               
MORTON               NORTON              RAWLINS             
SCOTT                SHERIDAN            STANTON             
THOMAS               WICHITA             


NEC087-145-270300-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HITCHCOCK            RED WILLOW          


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more

SPC MD 829

MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
MD 0829 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Areas affected...Central to Eastern Kansas...Northeast
Oklahoma...Western Missouri...Southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

Valid 270647Z - 270845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
continues.

SUMMARY...A significant wind damage and some hail threat will
continue as a line of storms moves eastward into eastern Kansas and
western Missouri over the next few hours. A new watch will likely be
necessary to the east of the current watch.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed large-scale bowing line segment is
currently approaching the I-35 corridor in east-central Kansas. The
line is moving east at about 40 kt and is likely accompanied by wind
damage along the leading edge. Salina, KS had a 66 kt gust over the
last half hour and this is probably representative further south
along the bowing parts of the the line. Ahead of the squall-line, a
pocket of moderate instability is present across east-central Kansas
where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, the RAP is showing a corridor of steep mid-level lapse
rates just ahead of the squall-line with 700-500 mb lapse rates
estimated to be near 8.0 C/km according to the RAP. This combined
with a 50 to 60 kt rear inflow jet at 700 mb directly behind the
line will be favorable for widespread wind damage across central and
eastern Kansas where wind gusts above 70 kt will be possible. The
severe threat is expected to increase across far eastern Kansas and
western Missouri over the next 2 to 3 hours. Another watch issuance
may be needed in this area.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...

LAT...LON   38529354 39229376 40139454 40559575 40469676 40139761
            39449738 39169730 38249720 37489725 36739759 36299726
            36369671 37109403 38529354 

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SPC May 27, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...AS
WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, including a risk for tornadoes, severe hail
and damaging wind gusts, are expected in a corridor across southern
portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region this afternoon
into tonight.  Additional severe storms are expected near the
Cheyenne Ridge of the central High Plains, and perhaps southward
across the central Plains through the Texas South Plains.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the significant mid-level closed low, now
digging into the base of larger-scale troughing encompassing much of
the West, will remain progressive through this period.  After
reaching the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z this morning, it appears
likely to turn northeastward toward the Colorado Rockies later
today, through tonight.  As it does, a belt of 60-70+ kt cyclonic
500 mb flow is forecast to propagate around its southern and eastern
periphery, across the southern Rockies through the central Plains by
12Z Tuesday.  This will be accompanied by the continued advection of
warm elevated mixed-layer air northeast of the southern Plains
toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, in the wake of an
initial perturbation emanating from the Southwest.  The lead
impulse, is forecast to progress around the northern periphery of a
persistent, prominent subtropical high (centered over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico), northeast of the middle Missouri Valley, then
eastward and southeastward across southern portions of the Great
Lakes region by late tonight.

...Southern portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region...
Model output indicates that the lead impulse will continue to be
accompanied by a belt of southwesterly to westerly, 40-50+ kt flow
in the 850-500 mb layer, enhancing vertical shear and forcing for
ascent along a strengthening warm front across parts of eastern Iowa
through northern Illinois by mid to late afternoon.  This appears
likely to coincide with the northward return of seasonably moist
boundary layer air along and south of the front, which is forecast
to contribute to moderate to large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of
2000-3000 J/kg.

As the boundary layer destabilizes, remnants of overnight convection
spreading northeastward out of the central Plains may re-intensify
across eastern Iowa, with new storm development also possible along
the warm front into Illinois.  The eventual evolution of another
upscale growing convective system seems probable, but there may be a
period with sustained discrete storm development, including
supercells.  Either mode may support potential for tornadoes, in the
presence of large clockwise curved low-level hodographs along the
front.  Discrete activity would seem to pose a more substantive risk
for a strong tornado or two.  Otherwise, damaging wind gusts
probably will tend to become the more prominent risk, as a cold pool
consolidates and strengthens with upscale growing convection. This
is expected to tend to propagate east-southeastward along the warm
frontal zone, across southern portions of the Great Lakes region
into parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley by daybreak Tuesday.

...North central High Plains...
With a moist easterly flow to the north of a stalled frontal zone
across the Plains, at least modest boundary layer destabilization
appears possible by late this afternoon.  Focused near the Cheyenne
Ridge, storm development may be aided by forcing for ascent in the
left exit region of the strong mid-level jet crossing the southern
Rockies.  Storms may initiate near the Laramie Mountains, before
tending to propagate east southeastward across portions of western
into central Nebraska.  This may include a few supercells capable of
producing large to very large hail and an isolated tornado or two,
before perhaps growing upscale into a small mesoscale convective
system with potential to producing strong surface gusts by this
evening.

...Central Plains through the Texas South Plains...
Large-scale forcing for ascent may remain relatively weak to the
south of the cyclonic mid-level jet, but various model output does
indicate some cooling or developing weakness in the inhibition in
lower/mid troposphere, which may allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development near/east of the dryline.  This
appears most notable in a corridor across parts of western/central
Kansas, southward toward the eastern Texas Panhandle, by late this
afternoon or early evening.  If sustained convection forms, the
environment will likely be conducive to supercells with a risk for
severe hail/wind and tornadoes.

..Kerr/Squitieri.. 05/27/2019

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SPC May 27, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PLAINS
FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO FAR SOUTHERN IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA EASTWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEW YORK STATE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms (capable of hail, damaging wind and tornadoes) are
possible Tuesday from the central and southern Plains eastward to
the Midwest.  Severe storms are also possible across portions of
Ohio and Pennsylvania.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level closed low will begin to slowly weaken while moving
northeastward from Colorado to Nebraska through the forecast period.
 Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level flow will overspread portions of the
central Plains in response to the approaching wave.  Meanwhile,
persistent ridging aloft will remain over the Southeast, while a
belt of enhanced mid-level flow extends from the eastern Great Lakes
through southern New England.  Another wave will amplify over
California while moving southeastward through the Lower Colorado
River Valley, reaching northern Mexico overnight.  

At the surface, the combination of a surface low over western Kansas
and an anticyclone centered east of Florida will maintain a modified
tropical airmass across a large part of the central and eastern
CONUS.  Models vary with regard to the magnitude of the Plains low,
and some solutions suggest weakening through the day.  Meanwhile,
another surface low will traverse Pennsylvania/New York, with a
trailing cold front migrating southeastward toward the Ohio Valley
through the end of the period.

...Central Plains eastward to Illinois...
Models suggest that isolated convection will be ongoing from
Oklahoma northward to Nebraska/Iowa at the beginning of the period,
with an expanse/increase in convection across these areas through
the afternoon and early evening.  Though the synoptic setup
generally supports widespread severe weather, a gradually weakening
low/mid-level cyclone may occur, which decreases backing of
low-level flow throughout the warm sector and attendant convergence
along the dryline.  Nevertheless, most solutions depict widespread
convection growing upscale into linear bands during the afternoon in
an airmass characterized by moderate to strong instability (with
7.5-8 deg C/km mid-level lapse rates above 65-72F surface dewpoints)
and strong deep shear.  Current thinking is that initial dryline and
open-warm-sector storms will be isolated initially, but grow upscale
with an attendant threat for hail and wind.  The tornado threat will
be limited due to relatively weak, veered low-level flow initially,
but may increase through the evening in tandem with strengthened
shear attendant with a 35-45 kt low-level jet focused from
northeastern Oklahoma into western Missouri.  These storms should
reach portions of Illinois, central/southern Missouri, and
northwestern Arkansas with a continued severe threat overnight.

...Northeastern Indiana eastward through Pennsylvania...
Convection is expected to develop into a mix of linear segments and
supercellular structures along an advancing front that will move
through the region during the afternoon.  Surface heating ahead of
the front will result in moderate buoyancy and weak inhibition
throughout the warm sector, while increasing wind with height will
contribute to storm organization and possible updraft rotation. 
Areas nearer a surface low expected to be in the general vicinity of
southern New York/northern Pennsylvania during the afternoon/early
evening will experience backing of low-level flow, which will
enhance helicity/shear and attendant supercell potential.  Any
tornado threat will be highest in these areas, with primarily
damaging wind gusts and hail expected in remaining areas of the
Slight Risk.

...West Texas...
Overnight, a surface dryline is expected to retreat rapidly westward
as surface troughing develops in the Midland/Odessa area. 
Meanwhile, the aforementioned mid-level disturbance over northern
Mexico will approach the area, resulting in increasing mid-level
flow and ascent within an area of moderate instability and near 8
deg C/km mid-level lapse rates.  Hail will be the most likely threat
with any activity that develops in this area overnight, although
near 70 F dewpoints may support near-surface-based activity despite
time of day.  Low convective coverage precludes expansion of current
risk areas and/or categorical upgrades in this outlook, though this
will be re-evaluated in later updates.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   5%     - Slight
Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

..Cook.. 05/27/2019

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SPC May 27, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across portions of the southern
Plains northeastward through the Ozarks Wednesday.  More isolated
severe storms are expected from the Mid-Mississippi Valley eastward
to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A distinct shortwave trough over far west Texas initially will
migrate northeastward over Oklahoma and reach the Mid-Mississippi
Valley late in the period.  Another cutoff low over western Nebraska
will remain nearly stationary in that region throughout the forecast
period.  An anticyclone will remain in place across the southeast. 
A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will reside across the Northeast
on the southern periphery of a series of waves near Hudson Bay in
Canada.

At the surface, a dryline/weak cold front will extend from a surface
low over northeastern Kansas south-southwestward toward the Texas
South Plains.  This boundary will move little throughout the
forecast period, but might undergo convection-related modification
as the surface low remains nearly stationary across northeastern
Kansas.  Another surface boundary will extend from the low eastward
across Ohio/Pennsylvania, and may slowly retreat northward as a warm
front across portions of Illinois and Indiana.  South and east of
these boundaries, a warm, moist airmass will continue to reside,
which will contribute to moderate to strong instability and
convective potential in a broad swath from Texas to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and eastward through the Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern Plains northeastward to the Ozarks...
The aforementioned west Texas shortwave trough will contribute to
ongoing convection across portions of that area, which will contain
at least a hail risk owing to steep mid-level lapse rates.  Model
consensus indicates that these storms will grow upscale over time
while moving eastward through north Texas and Oklahoma, with
damaging wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes likely given continued
steep mid-level lapse rates and heating within a moist boundary
layer containing low 70s F dewpoints. Strong vertical shear will
further support convective/complex organization, and low-level shear
will increase toward afternoon attendant to a 35-40 knot low-level
jet near the ArkLaTex.  Additional storms may form ahead of the
complex through the Ozarks in the afternoon just ahead of the
approaching MCS.

...Iowa, northern Missouri, and Illinois...
Models indicate strong destabilization in these areas during peak
heating hours due to continued rich boundary layer moisture and
cooling aloft.  The degree of destabilization is in doubt, however,
and will depend on the degree of overturning during the prior
forecast period as scattered thunderstorms are expected in the area.
 If this region can recover, shear will be sufficient for storm
organization, though low-level shear may be lacking as stronger
low-level flow will be displaced well to the south.  A conditional
Marginal risk in is place in these areas, although if convective
overturning isn't as pronounced as latest models suggest on
D2/Tuesday, risk/probabilistic upgrades will be warranted.

...Indiana eastward to Pennsylvania...
Deep westerly shear profiles will remain in place through the
forecast period.  Surface heating south of a surface boundary in the
area will result in steepening low-level lapse rates and moderate
instability, which should promote areas of thunderstorm development.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with this activity -
especially with any linear segments that can materialize.

..Cook.. 05/27/2019

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough, with over 60 knots of 500 mb
flow, will traverse the Four Corners region during the afternoon
hours. At the same time, rapid surface low development will
transpire across the High Plains. Strong westerly isallobaric flow,
and downward mixing of the stronger flow aloft via deep
boundary-layer mixing, will promote very windy, dry conditions
across portions of the southwest CONUS that would support the
potential for wildfire spread.

Across the southeast CONUS, an upper-level ridge will remain in
place, with a surface trough meandering off of the Atlantic Coast,
providing breezy conditions to the Carolinas. Meanwhile, large scale
subsidence associated with the aforementioned ridge will hinder
precipitation development to the region, and promote hot, dry
conditions.

...Central into southern New Mexico and far West Texas...
By afternoon peak heating, widespread 20+ mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds and 10-20% RH will be common across much
of New Mexico into western Texas. The elevated and critical
delineations have been restricted to areas where fuels are at least
modestly supportive of wildfire spread, and west of areas where
recent heavier rainfall has occurred. Within the critical
delineation, a few areas may experience localized extremely critical
conditions, with wind speeds briefly reaching 30 mph. By nightfall,
nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer will temper wildfire
potential via subsiding winds and RH recovery. 

...Portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina...  
By mid afternoon, temperatures are expected to reach well into the
90s, with surface RH dropping as low as 25-35%. Given the
aforementioned lack of past accumulated or forecast rainfall, fuels
will continue to cure across the area (with seasonal ERCs already
exceeding the 80th percentile in some spots). Winds are expected to
be light overall, but a few instances of winds reaching 15 mph are
possible along the Georgia/South Carolina border region (and points
north) in association with a departing surface trough. An elevated
delineation has been made where there is the best overlap of winds
potentially reaching 15 mph, near-critical to critical surface RH
(based on the latest model guidance), and fuels that are receptive
to fire spread.

..Squitieri.. 05/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...Synopsis...
A small mid-level impulse, embedded within broad cyclonic flow, will
trail behind a more potent mid-level shortwave trough that will be
ejecting into the Great Plains States on Day 2/Tuesday. At the
surface, a well-defined surface low will continue to meander across
the central Plains. The net result will be lingering dry, westerly
flow across the New Mexico/Texas border region.

In the southeast CONUS, an upper-level ridge will hold firm, with
high pressure dominating the surface pattern. Hot and dry
conditions, with no forecast precipitation accumulations, will
continue to be the norm for Tuesday afternoon.

...Portions of eastern into southern New Mexico and far West
Texas...
Widespread 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amidst 10-20%
RH will be common by the mid to late afternoon hours. Fuels continue
to be receptive to fire spread across the area, and an elevated
delineation has been added to account for this scenario. In
addition, model guidance also hints at areas within the elevated
delineation experiencing winds well over 20 mph, suggesting that
critical conditions may take place. However, lack of agreement in
spatial placement of the critical winds precludes a delineation at
this time, though a critical delineation may be added in future
outlooks. By evening, nocturnal cooling will lead to subsiding winds
and RH recovery, reducing the wildfire-spread threat to a degree.

...Portions of eastern Georgia into South Carolina...
Hot and dry conditions, with temperatures soaring past the 90F mark,
and RH dropping below 30% in some locales, is expected by peak
heating of the afternoon. Furthermore, accumulated rainfall remains
overall absent in the forecast, with the continuing dry spell
expanding in time. As such, fuels will continue to dry further
across the area, becoming supportive of fire spread. So far,
confidence is rather low regarding the agreement of model guidance
depicting winds exceeding 15 mph, precluding an elevated delineation
at this time. Nonetheless, localized areas of 15 mph winds may occur
in associated with boundary layer mixing of the aforementioned hot,
dry air, and with sea breezes that make it far enough inland.

..Squitieri.. 05/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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