SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 22 17:52:02 UTC 2019

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 22 17:52:02 UTC 2019.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 22 17:52:02 UTC 2019.

SPC Mar 22, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and South Plains regions, this afternoon
into early evening.  Large hail, locally severe wind gusts, and a
tornado or two are possible.

...Southern High Plains...
Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradual clearing is occurring
across eastern NM and west TX.  This will encourage boundary-layer
heating and mixing, allowing low-level moisture to rapidly return to
this corridor.  Surface dewpoints are expected to rise into the
lower 50s by early afternoon.  Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows
a well-defined shortwave trough rotating across northwest NM. 
Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread the
discussion area by mid-late afternoon, helping to initiate scattered
thunderstorms.

Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and
sufficient MLCAPE for robust updrafts.  Strong deep-layer shear and
favorable low-level hodograph structures also support a few discrete
supercells capable of large hail (possibly very large) and perhaps a
tornado or two.  Storms are expected to congeal into one or more
linear structures capable of gusty/damaging winds as they move
eastward into a progressively more stable environment and weaken.

..Hart/Gleason.. 03/22/2019

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SPC Mar 22, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the central
and southern Plains and also across portions of Oregon, northern
California, and central Nevada on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A midlevel low and attendant trough will lift northeast across the
central and southern Plains on Saturday, becoming an open wave over
the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak lee
cyclone will track east across KS. A dryline will extend southward
from northwest OK into western TX during the morning, and mix
eastward into western OK and central TX by 00z. Southerly low level
flow will continue to transport moisture northward in warm advection
regime and dewpoints will generally be in the mid 50s across central
and northern TX into south-central OK.  Overnight, a cold front will
move across the central Plains and into northern OK by the end of
the period. 

...OK/TX Vicinity...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning across
central and eastern OK and north Texas. This activity will be
elevated in nature. Very weak instability will limit intensity and
longevity of any stronger updrafts despite favorable shear that
generally would support rotation/organization. Therefore, severe
threat is not expected as convection  shifts east into the Ozarks
during the afternoon and evening. 

More uncertain is the convective threat during the afternoon and
evening along the dryline. A narrow band of relatively higher
dewpoints (56-60 F) is forecast near the dryline in the
vicinity/just west of the I-35 corridor from north-central TX into
western/central OK by peak heating. Stronger forcing for ascent will
be lifting away from this region as the shortwave trough moves
northeast. Because of this, forcing mechanism will be more subtle
and dependent on low level convergence along the dryline and
stronger destabilization where clearing occurs behind morning
precipitation. Hi-res guidance continues to vary considerably with
regards to convective initiation in this corridor during the
afternoon/evening. As a result, the threat remains highly
conditional and uncertain.  Steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable
shear profiles will support rotating cells capable of producing
severe hail and gusty winds and, perhaps even a tornado if low level
moisture exceeds expectation. However, given the degree of
uncertainty that any storms will develop in this corridor, will
continue to refrain from inclusion of Marginal probs at this time.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Leitman.. 03/22/2019

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

Much of the forecast remains on track. However, rainfall for the
previous overnight period was not as abundant as previously forecast
across portions of the southern High Plains. As such, fine fuels may
be able to respond just enough to support an elevated fire threat
associated with the 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and
15-20% RH expected behind the sharpening dryline during the late
afternoon hours. An elevated delineation was added to portions of
southern New Mexico into far west Texas to account for this
scenario.

..Squitieri.. 03/22/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019/

...Synopsis...
Two upper-level shortwave troughs will merge over the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic today with dry northwesterly flow continuing
across much of the Southeast. A separate upper-level shortwave
trough will move over the Colorado Rockies, but is forecast to
weaken, limiting the potential for fire weather conditions across
the Southwest/southern High Plains today. However, a dryline is
likely to develop/tighten today with lee troughing across the
southern High Plains and a surface low expected in eastern Colorado.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Dry, breezy northwesterly flow will continue over much of the
Southeast today resulting in elevated conditions across portions of
South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida. Sustained
west-northwest winds of 8-15 mph and RH values of 15-30% are
expected across this area, and locally elevated conditions may
extend into the Florida Panhandle. ERCs are above the 80th
percentile within the elevated area, with some areas in southern
Georgia/northern Florida above the 90th percentile.

...Portions of southern New Mexico and far West Texas...
Elevated winds/RH are likely to develop this afternoon (westerly
winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) across southern New Mexico
and far West Texas, but there are mitigating circumstances that
preclude an elevated area. The strongest winds/lowest RH are
forecast to be over vegetation-sparse areas, and precipitation
chances will likely linger from overnight into the afternoon across
portions of southeast New Mexico/West Texas. Additionally, ERCs are
mostly near normal and 10-hour fuel moisture values have increased
recently.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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