SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118

WW 118 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 232015Z - 240300Z
      
WW 0118 Image
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern New Mexico
  Southwest Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM
  until 900 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify across eastern
New Mexico and Southwest Texas this afternoon, with the risk of a
few storms producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southeast
of Marfa TX to 15 miles northeast of Raton NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 117...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23025.

...Hart

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117

WW 117 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 231930Z - 240300Z
      
WW 0117 Image
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Colorado
  Western Nebraska
  Western South Dakota
  Eastern Wyoming

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM
  until 900 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify over east-central
Colorado/Wyoming and spread northeastward across the watch area this
afternoon and evening.  The strongest cells will pose a risk of
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles southwest of
Sidney NE to 105 miles north northwest of Rapid City SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23030.

...Hart

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118 Status Reports

WW 0118 Status Updates
      
WW 0118 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 118

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF TO
35 NNW MRF TO 35 WNW INK TO 30 WNW HOB TO 50 SSW CVS TO 20 WNW
CVS TO 15 WSW TCC TO 30 NNW TCC TO 40 WNW CAO TO 35 E TAD.

..COOK..05/24/18

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 118 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NMC009-021-025-037-041-059-240240-

NM 
.    NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CURRY                HARDING             LEA                 
QUAY                 ROOSEVELT           UNION               


TXC043-243-301-371-377-389-475-495-240240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREWSTER             JEFF DAVIS          LOVING              
PECOS                PRESIDIO            REEVES              
WARD                 WINKLER             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117 Status Reports

WW 0117 Status Updates
      
WW 0117 Status Image
STATUS REPORT ON WW 117

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE AKO
TO 10 SE TOR TO 25 W 2WX.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506

..MOSIER..05/24/18

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 117 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC095-115-240240-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

PHILLIPS             SEDGWICK            


NEC013-033-045-123-157-165-240240-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOX BUTTE            CHEYENNE            DAWES               
MORRILL              SCOTTS BLUFF        SIOUX               


SDC007-019-033-047-063-071-081-093-102-103-105-240240-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNETT              BUTTE               CUSTER              
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SPC MD 507

MD 0507 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118... FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
MD 0507 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...far eastern New Mexico and portions of west Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

Valid 240142Z - 240245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will linger through the scheduled
expiration of WW 118 (03Z).  An isolated hail/wind threat will exist
just east of the Watch during this period as well.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection has propagated into the far eastern
portions of WW 118 at this time, and a few storms have exited WW 118
into portions of the Texas South Plains.  A notable weakening trend
has commenced with the ongoing activity - likely due to gradually
weaker lapse rates/buoyancy with eastward extent.  Nevertheless,
forward-propagating clusters/linear segments amidst weak to moderate
instability (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) will continue to foster isolated
hail/wind threat for the next 1-1.5 hours within stronger
thunderstorm cores.  Increasing low-level flow may sustain a few
storms beyond this time frame, although the stabilizing boundary
layer is expected to mitigate the overall threat.  

Remaining portions of WW 118 that have stabilized due to prior
convection may be cancelled early.

..Cook.. 05/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36680373 36900329 36720268 35860231 34150225 32080215
            31200210 30440237 29740264 29180289 28980322 29040379
            29330430 29790462 30240470 30540432 31240386 32200371
            33160356 33980356 34730371 35470386 35820383 36680373 

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SPC MD 506

MD 0506 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 117... FOR NE PANHANDLE....WEST-CENTRAL NE...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
MD 0506 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...NE Panhandle....West-central
NE...Southwest/South-central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117...

Valid 240128Z - 240300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts and hail will persist
across the remaining portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117.
Convective trends will be monitored closely to determine the need
for a downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing supercell in Oglala Lakota county is strongest
storm of day across the region thus far. Recent MRMS MESH suggests
hail around 3 inches possible with this storm. Large hail will
remain possible with this storm during the next hour or so before a
transition to a more linear mode reduces the potential for very
large hail. Recent reflectivity surge northeastward as well as the
influence of the approaching line segment farther southwest and
interaction with an outflow boundary suggest upscale growth is
probable with this currently discrete storm.

To the south/southeast of this storm (i.e. across west-central NE),
convection has recently increased along a residual outflow boundary
in Cherry and Grant counties while the supercell that recently moved
through Garden county appears to have become more outflow dominant.
All of these signs point toward eventual cool pool amalgamation and
eventual upscale growth into a linear MCS. 

However, the downstream airmass will soon experience nocturnal
stabilization and there is some question as to whether or not the
MCS will be strong/mature enough to produce damaging wind gusts in
the resulting stable low-level environment. Even if damaging wind
gusts are not realized, steep mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by
regional 00Z soundings, and increasing low-level flow will remain
supportive of severe hail. Convective trends will be monitored
closely to determine the need for a downstream watch.

..Mosier.. 05/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42240409 43560354 44540104 44329968 42689943 41380102
            41090296 42240409 

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SPC May 24, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN SD/NE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will persist this evening primarily
over a portion of the central and northern High Plains. Other strong
storms over the southern High Plains will persist through mid
evening. Downburst winds and large hail are the primary threats.

...Central and northern High Plains...

Storms that developed over the higher terrain of CO and WY are
moving into the high plains of western NE and southwest SD. Activity
is embedded within modest deep layer flow with 35-40 kt effective
bulk shear supportive of a few organized structures and mid-level
updraft rotation with any discrete cells. The strengthening
nocturnal low-level jet may promote one or two clusters of storms
persisting through the evening into parts of NE and SD with a threat
for a few strong to damaging gusts and hail before a gradual
weakening trend occurs due to stabilization of the boundary layer.

...Southern High Plains...

Storms moving off the higher terrain and into the High Plains are
embedded within  weak flow aloft and are currently moving through
the corridor of maximum instability across eastern NM and southwest
TX. Threat for downburst winds may persist through a couple more
hours. However, warm air at the base of the EML will result in a
substantial increase in convective inhibition as the surface layer
cools suggesting storms should begin to undergo a gradual increase
in intensity this evening.

..Dial.. 05/24/2018

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