A Mesodiscussion is issued by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center when there is a chance of a significant weather event impacting an area. These are routinely issued before weather watches or as updated to weather watches.
SPC MD 552
MD 0552 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR SOUTHEAST KS/WESTERN MOMesoscale Discussion 0552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0825 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Southeast KS/western MO Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 280125Z - 280300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread into eastern/southern portions of ww149. DISCUSSION...Slow-moving MCS has developed over eastern KS/western MO early this evening. A weak MCV may ultimately evolve within this complex near KMKC as an arcing band of convection is beginning to surge east across Bates/Vernon County MO. Damaging wind threat may increase ahead of this portion of the squall line. More discrete supercells trail along the southwestern flank of the MCS across southeast KS. As LLJ strengthens this evening, this activity should continue propagating slowly northeast into southwest MO. Tornado risk is highest with this southern flank activity. ..Darrow.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 36949634 39549531 39569269 36939380 36949634Read more
SPC MD 551
MD 0551 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Northern and central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 280058Z - 280200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase through the rest of the evening. A Watch downstream of WW150 will likely to be needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is advancing north and eastward across southern Iowa into northeastern Missouri this evening. This line will eventually move into portions of northern and central Illinois, with potential for additional thunderstorm development out ahead of this line. Ahead of this ongoing activity, temperatures remain in the mid 70s with dew points in the low to mid-60s. MUCAPE around 1500-1700 J/kg is observed in objective analysis data and sounding data from the 00z RAOB from ILX. Marginal deep layer shear around 30-35 kts suggests the main threats will be damaging wind and hail. Ahead of the line, more discrete development aligned with the low-level jet axis moving across central Illinois may pose the risk of a tornado if this activity continues to mature, though low-level lapse rates may weaken and there is uncertainty regarding this scenario. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41798978 42198953 42458911 42448820 42438786 42208778 41658786 41308807 40778852 40368873 40078901 40018972 40059032 40059038 40229048 40479049 41798978Read more