A Mesodiscussion is issued by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center when there is a chance of a significant weather event impacting an area. These are routinely issued before weather watches or as updated to weather watches.

SPC MD 829

MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
MD 0829 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Areas affected...Central to Eastern Kansas...Northeast
Oklahoma...Western Missouri...Southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

Valid 270647Z - 270845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
continues.

SUMMARY...A significant wind damage and some hail threat will
continue as a line of storms moves eastward into eastern Kansas and
western Missouri over the next few hours. A new watch will likely be
necessary to the east of the current watch.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed large-scale bowing line segment is
currently approaching the I-35 corridor in east-central Kansas. The
line is moving east at about 40 kt and is likely accompanied by wind
damage along the leading edge. Salina, KS had a 66 kt gust over the
last half hour and this is probably representative further south
along the bowing parts of the the line. Ahead of the squall-line, a
pocket of moderate instability is present across east-central Kansas
where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, the RAP is showing a corridor of steep mid-level lapse
rates just ahead of the squall-line with 700-500 mb lapse rates
estimated to be near 8.0 C/km according to the RAP. This combined
with a 50 to 60 kt rear inflow jet at 700 mb directly behind the
line will be favorable for widespread wind damage across central and
eastern Kansas where wind gusts above 70 kt will be possible. The
severe threat is expected to increase across far eastern Kansas and
western Missouri over the next 2 to 3 hours. Another watch issuance
may be needed in this area.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...

LAT...LON   38529354 39229376 40139454 40559575 40469676 40139761
            39449738 39169730 38249720 37489725 36739759 36299726
            36369671 37109403 38529354 

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SPC MD 828

MD 0828 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 259... FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE
        
MD 0828 Image
Mesoscale Discussion 0828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon May 27 2019

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 259...

Valid 270549Z - 270715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 259 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to continue for a few more hours
in the Texas Panhandle. Large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat
will be possible. An extension of WW 259 could be needed after the
0700Z expiration.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms just to the
northwest of Amarillo, is located along a gradient of moderate
instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values over the southern
and central Texas Panhandle in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, the Amarillo WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear of 50 kt with a
long and looped hodograph. This shear environment will continue to
be favorable for supercells and possible a tornado or two over the
next couple of hours. Supercells will also be capable of producing
isolated large hail and wind damage. Although the instability will
decrease gradually with time tonight, the severe threat should
linger in the Texas Panhandle and may require a local extension of
WW 259.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...

LAT...LON   35160178 35270077 35970051 36300069 36370138 36310229
            35760263 35220238 35160178 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook
      
PWO Image
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High
Plains this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Western Kansas
  East central and southeastern Colorado
  The Texas Panhandle
  The Oklahoma Panhandle

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size
  Widespread damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  Severe thunderstorms are likely today into tonight across much
  of the central Plains and southern High Plains, with all aspects
  of severe weather expected. Additional severe thunderstorms are
  possible across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, accompanied
  by a risk for severe wind and hail.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

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