Fire Weather

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

Fire weather concerns are possible during the middle of the current
work week as well as over the weekend, though confidence in this
potential is currently too limited to introduce risk probabilities. 

...D3/Wednesday - Mid-Atlantic...
The upper shortwave trough currently over southern Canada is
forecast to propagate to the southeast over the next 48-72 hours,
reaching the Atlantic coast by late afternoon D3/Wednesday. This
will establish a westerly offshore flow regime from the
central/southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region. With
little precipitation anticipated with this system, the combination
of breezy downslope winds with an influx of dry air may support
regional fire weather concerns. Elevated fire weather conditions are
probable, and localized critical conditions are possible in the lee
of the higher terrain. However, confidence in regional details
remains too limited to introduce highlights. 

...D3/Wednesday and D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
The meandering upper low currently over the Southwest is forecast to
migrate into the southern Plains on D3/Wednesday. As this occurs,
weak cyclogenesis over the Plains should induce downslope westerly
flow off the southern Rockies into parts of eastern NM and southwest
TX. This may allow for areas of elevated to critical fire weather
conditions, though weak mid-level winds associated with the
low-amplitude wave should limit the potential for substantial,
widespread fire concerns. 

Long-range guidance continues to show an upper pattern regime change
by the upcoming weekend. Shortwave troughing should become
established over the western CONUS by Saturday with some
deterministic solutions showing the progression of the upper wave
into the Four Corners region by Sunday. This synoptic regime will
favor the development of a strong lee cyclone over the central High
Plains with an accompanying swath of dry/windy conditions across
eastern NM and southwest/west TX behind a sharpening dryline. This
is a typical fire weather regime for this region, and critical fire
weather conditions are likely if this pattern is realized. However,
long-range ensemble analyses show that the timing/progression of the
upper wave in deterministic solutions may be too fast compared to
most ensemble clusters. Probabilities are withheld for this forecast
due to the inherent uncertainty at this time range, but if
ensemble/deterministic solutions come into better agreement
regarding the timing of the upper wave, risk probabilities will be
introduced.

..Moore.. 03/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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