Fire Weather

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z


Much of the previous forecast remains on track, with adjustments
made to the ongoing critical, elevated, and isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights to reflect the latest model guidance. In
addition, locally elevated conditions may occur across portions of
the southern High Plains, with the lack of upper-level support for a
stronger wind field precluding any delineations at this time.
Breezy, occasionally locally dry conditions may also be observed by
afternoon peak heating in northern New England with the passage of a
cold front. Nonetheless, the lack of a more robust favorable wind/RH
overlap, and the possibility of accumulating precipitation across
the region limits confidence in delineating fire weather highlights.
Lastly, scattered thunderstorms with wetting rains are expected
across the Pacific Northwest, and occasional, erratic gusty winds
are possible across the Columbia Basin given a dry sub-cloud layer
extending past 700 mb. Still, fuels do not appear to be dry enough
to support a robust wildfire spread threat, precluding an isolated
dry thunderstorm delineation at this time.

..Squitieri.. 05/29/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020/

An upper-level closed low situated over the California coast will
continue moving onshore while merging with the upper-level ridge
anchored over the West. As this process occurs, the closed low will
transition into an open wave while lifting northeastward into
portions of the Pacific Northwest.

...Portions of the Great Basin...
The core of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to be situated atop
the region by mid afternoon on Saturday, resulting in stronger
sustained surface wind speeds of 20-30 mph, gusting to 40-50 mph.
Meanwhile, RH values should fall into the teens and approach the
single digits in a few spots. Fuels in the region will remain
receptive to large-fire spread, given further drying that will take
place on D1/Friday. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions can be
expected over much of east-central Nevada into far western Utah.
This region is surrounded by potential for elevated fire-weather
conditions, where sustained surface winds are expected to remain in
the 15-20 mph range.

...Four Corners Region...
A continuation of diurnally driven isolated convection is expected
in areas under the influence of the upper-level ridge and where
residual moisture is present. PWAT values are expected to remain
near or below 0.75 inches over the region, supporting the notion of
dry thunderstorm potential and lightning-induced fire ignitions
where fuels are receptive.

...Please see for graphic product...

Read more