Fire Weather

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

The previous forecast remains largely on track. In addition, a
relatively dry surface airmass remains in place across the eastern
Mid Atlantic (RH dropping to 35% in some locations), which will lead
to further drying of the finer fuels. Nonetheless, the lack of a
stronger wind field and warmer temperatures preclude an elevated
area delineation.

Please see the previous forecast below for more details.

..Squitieri.. 02/24/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/

...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid-level trough will develop across the central Rockies
in the wake of a lead wave traversing the Mid-Mississippi Valley and
vicinity.  Lee surface cyclogenesis will develop in response to this
troughing across the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the
afternoon.  This will encourage a fire-weather threat to develop in
the southern High Plains, though this threat will be tempered by
uncured fuels in several areas.

...Eastern New Mexico and far west Texas...
Along and west of the surface low/trough, substantial heating and
drying will take place during the afternoon.  RH values will fall as
low as single digits in some areas of east-central New Mexico, while
falling to higher values (around 15-25%) in west Texas.  This,
combined with wind speeds approaching 30 mph in a few areas, will
foster development of critical atmospheric conditions.  The limiting
factor for a higher fire-weather risk is fuel states, with portions
of the region experiencing wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. 
Thus, an elevated fire-weather delineation is in place to address
the threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

Much of the forecast remains on track. A few modifications were made
to the Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley elevated
area, with the delineation trimmed back to the areas where fuels
with the relatively highest receptiveness for wildfire spread exist.

Please see the previous forecast below for more details.

..Squitieri.. 02/24/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/

...Synopsis...
A strong surface high (>1042 mb) will settle into portions of the
central Rockies and eastern Great Basin D2/Tue.  As this occurs, a
favorable pressure gradient will set up for gusty winds to occur in
a broad part of the southwestern U.S. from southern California
eastward to west Texas.  The dry, continental airmass across the
region will warm and lead to elevated fire-weather conditions,
though unfavorable fuels in many areas should keep any critical
fire-weather conditions very localized.

...Southern New Mexico and west Texas...
Central Rockies high pressure and a front/surface low near south
Texas will foster development of widespread areas of 20-35 mph
surface winds with a few higher gusts in terrain-favored areas.
These winds will occur within a dry airmass, with RH values falling
to the single digits across New Mexico despite surface temperatures
only reaching the upper 40s F in some of those areas.  Slightly
higher RH values are expected near the Rio Grande Valley, though
10-20% values will become common during peak heating.  Again, recent
rainfall and low ERCs are expected to limit the extent of the
fire-weather threat in these areas, though if finer fuels can carry
large fires, critical atmospheric fire-weather conditions will
exist.

...Southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley...
A similar regime for easterly/northeasterly flow will exist across
these areas in response to the very strong area of high pressure
across the central Rockies and surface trough located roughly along
the California coast.  25-35 mph surface winds will become common
across the area, with higher gusts possible across terrain-favored
areas of southern California coastal ranges.  These winds will occur
amidst critically low RH values ranging from 3-15% across the
region.  Where fuels are dry, critical fire weather conditions will
exist - however the extent of critically dry fuels is expected to be
limited.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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