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 Forecast Discussion


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ACUS03 KWNS 150746
SWODY3
SPC AC 150745

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunder probabilities will remain low across the country Saturday,
although a few lightning strikes may occur across deep south Texas
late.

...Deep South TX...

Weak mid-level short-wave trough within southern stream is forecast
to eject across northern Mexico into deep south TX by the end of the
period. In response to this feature, weak pressure falls will
develop over the northwest Gulf basin and low-level warm advection
should increase inland over deep south TX. Forecast soundings
suggest weak buoyancy will evolve after midnight and shallow
elevated convection may ultimately develop within this warm
advection regime. If instability ultimately is greater than
currently forecast more robust/deeper updrafts could attain heights
sufficient for lightning. At this time thunder probabilities appear
less than 10%.

..Darrow.. 11/15/2018

$$