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000
ABNT20 KNHC 030513
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the
associated shower activity is not well organized. However,
environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of
this system during the next several days, with a tropical
depression possibly forming later this week. This system is
forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern
Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS...
 As of 2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 3
 the center of Isaias was located near 29.0, -79.8
 with movement NNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 24A

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020  
000
WTNT34 KNHC 030552
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
 
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
THE CAROLINAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the
east coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
 
Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias.  Additional watches or
warnings may be required today.
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning.  A turn toward
the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward
speed is anticipated later today and Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the
Florida east coast through this morning.  The center of Isaias will
then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South
Carolina later today, move inland over eastern South Carolina or
southern North Carolina tonight and move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next
36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when
it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North
Carolina tonight.  Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes
landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic
region tonight and Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km)
east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, reported sustained winds of 54 mph
(86 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past few
hours.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina tonight and early Tuesday.
 
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through tonight.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:
 
Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.
 
Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 4
inches.
 
Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.
 
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.
 
Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.
 
Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight.  Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States.  Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.
Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians
and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening today, and across
eastern North Carolina this evening and tonight.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
 

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 24

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020  
000
WTNT24 KNHC 030242
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTHWARD FROM SMITH POINT
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
* CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  79.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  79.8W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  79.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.7N  80.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.2N  79.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.9N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.5N  74.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 45.5N  70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.0N  65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 55.5N  56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  79.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 24

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020  
000
WTNT44 KNHC 030243
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Isais has not become better organized on satellite and radar imagery 
at this time.  The cyclone continues to produce vigorous deep 
convection but this convection continues to be displaced to the 
northeast of the center, and convective banding features are 
ill-defined.  Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations show that the 
central pressure has not fallen since earlier today, and 
flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind measurements from the 
aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 60 kt.  Although 
Isais will be moving through an environment of fairly strong 
southwesterly shear during the next day or so, it will also be 
traversing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream with its high oceanic 
heat content.  The latter factor could result in the system becoming 
a hurricane near landfall.  The official forecast is close to the 
intensity consensus, which keeps Isaias just below hurricane 
strength.

It should be emphasized that there is little difference between a 
strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane, in terms of 
impacts.

After landfall, the interaction with land and strong shear should 
result in steady weakening.  Based on the global models, the 
cyclone is likely to become an extratropical cyclone after it moves 
into Canada and dissipate over the north Atlantic shortly 
thereafter. 

The motion continues to be slightly west of due north or 345/8 kt.
There has been no significant change to the track forecast
reasoning.  Over the next couple of days, Isaias is expected to
accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of a large 500 mb
trough over the eastern United States and then turn northeastward
in 3 to 4 days as it moves through the mid-latitude westerlies.
The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and
similar to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus.  This is
between the GFS, which shows a slightly faster motion and the ECMWF,
which is slightly slower.
 

Key Messages:
 
1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to
Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent
waterways.  Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the
North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck.  Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to Maryland through
early Tuesday. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are
likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch
area.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.
 
4. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread northward 
across the remainder of the U.S east coast on Tuesday and early 
Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect through Long Island 
Sound and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on 
Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 28.5N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 29.7N  80.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 32.2N  79.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 35.9N  77.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0000Z 40.5N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/1200Z 45.5N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/0000Z 50.0N  65.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  07/0000Z 55.5N  56.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020

000
FONT14 KNHC 030243
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020               
0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   X(19)   X(19)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)
PORTSMOUTH NH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   X(22)   X(22)
WORCESTER MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SPRINGFIELD MA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   X(20)   X(20)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   X(22)   X(22)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)   X(21)   X(21)
BRIDGEPORT CT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  10(22)   X(22)   X(22)
NEW HAVEN CT   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  13(22)   X(22)   X(22)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  13(23)   X(23)   X(23)
NEW LONDON CT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)
POUGHKEEPSIE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  10(23)   X(23)   X(23)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   7(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ISLIP NY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
NWS EARLE NJ   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
PHILADELPHIA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  21(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  20(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)  10(10)  12(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)  12(12)  32(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)  17(17)  33(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)  20(20)  17(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
PAX RIVER NAS  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PAX RIVER NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)  24(24)  31(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
CHARLOTTESVIL  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)  33(33)   9(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
RICHMOND VA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
DANVILLE VA    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)  52(52)  14(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)  18(18)   7(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)  51(51)  15(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)  19(19)   6(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)  51(51)  15(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)  19(19)   8(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)  62(62)   9(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)  27(27)   5(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)  37(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)  61(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   X( X)  23(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
ROCKY MT NC    64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)  53(53)   3(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)  45(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
FAYETTEVILLE   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)  74(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)  34(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)  76(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)  37(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   3( 3)  69(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)  33(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   7( 7)  74(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)  41(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   4( 4)  72(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)  35(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  14(14)  68(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   1( 1)  40(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   3( 3)  21(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X  17(17)  59(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   1( 1)  32(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X  22(22)  50(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   2( 2)  26(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X  18(18)  30(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  2  30(32)   7(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  3  11(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  6   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics


Tropical Storm Isaias 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 05:52:52 GMT

Tropical Storm Isaias 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 03:24:57 GMT

Tropical Storm Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics


Tropical Storm Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 03:22:01 GMT

Tropical Storm Isaias Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Tropical Storm Isaias Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 03:54:53 GMT

Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Tropical Storm Isaias Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 02:48:48 GMT

Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA

Issued at 1103 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020


Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at 1114 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020


Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Issued at 1116 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020


Local Statement for Baltimore/Washington

Issued at 1121 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020


Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at 1122 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020


Local Statement for Columbia, SC

Issued at 1124 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020


Local Statement for Raleigh, NC

Issued at 1148 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020


Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at 1201 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020


Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020


Local Statement for Melbourne, FL

Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020


Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at 222 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020


    

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


486
ABPZ20 KNHC 030514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 2 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 03 Aug 2020 08:14:14 GMT