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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south of Nantucket,
Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane Maria, located
over Puerto Rico.

Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized
during the past several hours in association with the remnants of
Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Although
environmental conditions are marginal for development, only a small
increase in the overall organization of the system would result in
the regeneration of Lee. This low is expected to move northward
over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Additional information on the remnants of Lee can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT JOSE IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
 As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 20
 the center of Jose was located near 39.0, -70.0
 with movement NE at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 976 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 61

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017  
000
WTNT32 KNHC 201433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number  61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT JOSE IS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 70.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 70.0 West.  Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue
through tonight.  A slow westward motion is expected to begin on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to
pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today, and pass
offshore of southeastern Massachusetts on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Jose is a large system.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next several days.  For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket...2 to 4 inches.

These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 61

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2017  
000
WTNT22 KNHC 201432
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  70.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 300SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  70.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N  70.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.8N  68.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.6N  68.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.5N  69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N  70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 61

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017  
000
WTNT42 KNHC 201434
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this
morning and found maximum flight-level winds of 78 kt at 5,000 feet
and peak SFMR surface winds of 56 kt.  Based on these data, the
initial wind speed is set at 60 kt, which is slightly higher than
the previous estimate.  Jose remains a sprawling cyclone, with
tropical storm force winds extending 180 n mi from the center.
Although Jose does not have a purely tropical appearance, it still
has a warm core and well-defined convective bands, especially to the
north of the center.

Jose is moving northeastward at 7 kt toward a mid- to upper-level
trough over eastern Canada.  A slightly slower northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight.  Thereafter,
the trough is expected to lift out, allowing a mid-level high
pressure system to build to the northwest of Jose.  This will likely
cause the storm to reverse its course and drift westward or
west-southwestward.  In about 3 days, however, the models suggest
that Jose will be caught in very weak steering currents, and the NHC
official track forecast now shows Jose stationary from 72 to 120
hours.

The tropical storm is moving over a tight SST gradient associated
with the north wall of the Gulf Stream current, and it will likely
remain over this gradient for the next several days.  These
relatively cool SSTs and dry air should cause a slow weakening
trend, and a gradual transition to a post-tropical cyclone.  The NHC
intensity forecast is not too different from the previous one and is
in best agreement with the consensus models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England during the next couple of days,
and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Cod, Block
Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions for the next several days in these areas.

4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches
in Nantucket as it passes offshore today into Thursday.  This
rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 39.0N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 39.5N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 39.8N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 39.6N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 39.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  24/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 61

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

000
FONT12 KNHC 201433
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  61             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  3   6( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   1(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   1(12)   1(13)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   1(13)   2(15)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  5   5(10)   3(13)   2(15)   1(16)   2(18)   2(20)
 
CONCORD NH     34  6   4(10)   3(13)   2(15)   3(18)   1(19)   2(21)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  8   6(14)   3(17)   2(19)   3(22)   2(24)   1(25)
 
WORCESTER MA   34 10   6(16)   4(20)   2(22)   4(26)   2(28)   2(30)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  7   5(12)   3(15)   3(18)   4(22)   2(24)   2(26)
 
BOSTON MA      34 13   8(21)   4(25)   3(28)   4(32)   2(34)   1(35)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 41   8(49)   4(53)   3(56)   4(60)   1(61)   2(63)
HYANNIS MA     50  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 60   7(67)   4(71)   2(73)   3(76)   1(77)   1(78)
NANTUCKET MA   50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 22   8(30)   5(35)   3(38)   5(43)   3(46)   1(47)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  9   5(14)   3(17)   2(19)   5(24)   3(27)   3(30)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34 10   5(15)   3(18)   3(21)   5(26)   3(29)   2(31)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  9   5(14)   4(18)   2(20)   5(25)   3(28)   2(30)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 18   7(25)   4(29)   3(32)   6(38)   3(41)   2(43)
 
ALBANY NY      34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   2(14)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  5   3( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   3(15)   2(17)   2(19)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 26   7(33)   4(37)   4(41)   5(46)   4(50)   2(52)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34 11   5(16)   3(19)   2(21)   6(27)   3(30)   3(33)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  7   4(11)   3(14)   2(16)   6(22)   2(24)   4(28)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  6   3( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   5(19)   3(22)   3(25)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  6   3( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   5(18)   2(20)   3(23)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   4(19)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  6   3( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   6(19)   2(21)   3(24)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   3(16)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  6   2( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   4(15)   3(18)   3(21)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)
 
DOVER DE       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   4(14)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   3(16)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   3(14)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Jose Graphics


Tropical Storm Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 11:47:42 GMT

Tropical Storm Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 09:23:44 GMT

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at 513 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017


Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at 531 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017


Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE... ...CENTER OF MARIA OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...
 As of 10:00 AM AST Wed Sep 20
 the center of Maria was located near 18.4, -66.4
 with movement NW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 928 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 17A

Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017  
000
WTNT35 KNHC 201156
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...EYE OF MARIA LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 66.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has changed the Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 66.1 West.  Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed by
a northwestward motion on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the eye
of Maria will continue to move across Puerto Rico this morning and
emerge off the northern coast by this afternoon.  The center will
then pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican
Republic tonight and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it is forecast to retain
this intensity while it moves across Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).  A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust
to 109 mph (175 km/h) was recently reported at Yabucoa Harbor,
Puerto Rico.  A sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) with a gust to
118 mph (190 km/h) was recently reported at Camp Santiago, Puerto
Rico.

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Yabucoa Harbor recently
reported a water level of 5.3 ft above Mean Higher High Water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic
tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in the Dominican Republic later today.  Hurricane conditions
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Thursday in
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, with
tropical storm conditions in this area by early Thursday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday:

Central Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 2 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 2 to
5 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos...4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Northern Haiti and southeastern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.

Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.

THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017  
000
WTNT25 KNHC 200856
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA
* ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  65.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  917 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  65.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  65.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.6N  66.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N  68.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N  69.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N  72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N  73.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  65.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017  
000
WTNT45 KNHC 200858
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement.  Based on
the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from
10 n mi to 30 n mi.  This has likely contributed to some weakening,
and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the
intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range.
Although there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria
remains an extremely dangerous hurricane.  Some weakening is
likely while the system crosses Puerto Rico.  Later in the forecast
period, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further
weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful
hurricane for the next 5 days.  The official intensity forecast is
near or a little above the model consensus.

Maria continues to move between west-northwest and northwest at
about 9 kt.  The flow on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane on this
general heading over the next couple of days.  This track will bring
the center of Maria across Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern
Dominican Republic over the next day or so.  After that time a
break in the ridge, partially associated with Tropical Storm Jose,
should cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by
the end of the forecast period.  The track guidance remains tightly
clustered through 72 hours, giving fairly high confidence in the
track forecast through that time.  There is some increase in the
spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the latest ECMWF
prediction near the western edge of the guidance envelope but with
all of the reliable models well offshore of the southeast U.S. at
the end of the period.  The official forecast is very close to the
latest FSU Superensemble track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core will make landfall over Puerto Rico within the
next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts to the island.  Everyone in Puerto Rico should
follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening
flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the Virgin Islands,
the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected
to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.9N  65.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 18.6N  66.7W  125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/0600Z 19.5N  68.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 20.5N  69.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 21.5N  70.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 24.2N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 27.3N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 30.5N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 200857
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   6(21)   1(22)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  31(35)  13(48)   1(49)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   X(20)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  23(29)  34(63)   3(66)   X(66)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  25(30)   2(32)   X(32)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
GRAND TURK     34  1   5( 6)  38(44)  41(85)   9(94)   X(94)   X(94)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)  12(12)  45(57)  15(72)   1(73)   X(73)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  31(33)  20(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  2  15(17)  45(62)  11(73)   3(76)   1(77)   X(77)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   3( 3)  18(21)  12(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  3  36(39)  14(53)   3(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  1   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PONCE PR       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       50 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       64 69   2(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
AGUADILLA PR   50 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
AGUADILLA PR   64 57  22(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VIEQUES PR     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   64 45   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Hurricane Maria Update Statement

Issued at 1000 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017  
000
WTNT65 KNHC 201352
TCUAT5

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1000 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF MARIA OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...

A weather station near Arecibo, Puerto Rico, recently reported a
sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust of 108 mph (174
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Brennan

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 12:02:25 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 09:30:51 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 858 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017


Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 0


    

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of Mexico a
couple of hundred miles east-southeast of Acapulco is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Land interaction should
limit development of this system during the next day or two, but
a tropical depression will likely form by the weekend when the
system moves farther offshore. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of southern Mexico
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 20 Sep 2017 13:53:59 GMT