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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 172342
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda, on Tropical
Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands, and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Imelda,
located near Houston, Texas.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Some gradual development is possible over the weekend
while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Public Advisories on Imelda are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Imelda are issued under WMO header WTNT21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Depression Imelda (AT1/AL112019)

...IMELDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
 As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Imelda was located near 29.6, -95.4
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 2A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTNT31 KNHC 172338
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...IMELDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 95.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Sargent to Port Bolivar, Texas, has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Imelda
was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 95.4 West.  Imelda
is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday.  A north-
northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move
farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Imelda is expected to continue to weaken as it
moves farther inland.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the
Houston and Galveston areas.  Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday.  This
rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  
000
WTNT21 KNHC 172031
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TO PORT BOLIVAR
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  95.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  95.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  95.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.1N  95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.8N  95.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.4N  95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 32.1N  95.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N  95.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Depression Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTNT41 KNHC 172033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly
intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas
around 1800 UTC.  A National Ocean Service observing site near
Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to
41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb.  A Weatherflow station
at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust
to 44 kt.  The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent
Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still
offshore.

Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other
recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007.
Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant
strengthening could occur.  Now that the center is moving inland,
gradual weakening is expected.  It cannot be stressed enough,
however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread
northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana
during the next day or so.

Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should
continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the
western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until
dissipation occurs in a couple of days.  The updated NHC track
forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the
tightly clustered track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 29.3N  95.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 30.1N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1800Z 30.8N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0600Z 31.4N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/1800Z 32.1N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

000
FONT11 KNHC 172032
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JASPER TX      34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
HOUSTON TX     34 13   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Depression Imelda Graphics


Tropical Depression Imelda 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:39:07 GMT

Tropical Depression Imelda 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:34:24 GMT

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019


Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
 As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Humberto was located near 31.2, -71.6
 with movement ENE at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 951 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 21A

Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTNT34 KNHC 172352
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 71.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 31.2 North,
longitude 71.6 West.  Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast
near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday,
followed by a northeastward motion through Friday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the
northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 951 mb (28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning.  Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Wednesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday.  Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 21

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  
000
WTNT24 KNHC 172041
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  72.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  72.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  72.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.6N  67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.6N  63.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N  61.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.5N  57.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 43.5N  48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 46.0N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N  72.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
754 
WTNT44 KNHC 172046
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Humberto's satellite appearance has improved somewhat since the
previous advisory, with the eye clearing out and becoming more
distinct. This has resulted in satellite subjective intensity
estimates increasing to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, with
objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS increasing to T5.9/112 kt.
However, during the past 36 h or so, the satellite estimates have
been running higher than the actual surface winds by about 10-15
percent. A 1425Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 72 kt
in the southeastern eyewall, which is significant given that the
scatterometer is well undersampling the actual peak winds due to the
25-km footprint of the instrument. The intensity has been increased
to 90 kt based on the clearing and warming of the eye and allowing
for some overestimation by the satellite agencies. The scatterometer
wind data also showed that Humberto's wind field has expanded more
since the earlier recon wind data, thus some additional adjustments
were made to all of the wind radii in this advisory.

Humberto continues to move east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. The
large hurricane remains on track, and the latest NHC model guidance
remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Thus, no
significant changes were made to the previous forecast track through
48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, the models are now in
better agreement on Humberto accelerating and moving faster toward
the northeast through 96 hours as an extratropical cyclone, followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast on day 5. The official forecast
track is based on a blend of the consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and
FSSE, and shows the center of Humberto passing just to the northwest
and north of Bermuda between 24-36 hours or late Wednesday night.

The latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows near 30 kt of deep-layer
vertical shear allegedly affecting Humberto, which obviously is a
significant overestimate based on the presence of a well-defined eye
and smooth CDO feature in visible satellite imagery. Given the
likely overestimation of the shear values, Humberto is expected to
strengthen to major hurricane status in the next 24 h. Thereafter,
Humberto is forecast to steadily weaken due to cold upwelling as the
hurricane moves over cooler waters, and into an environment
consisting of very strong shear exceeding 40-50 kt and more stable,
drier air. However, the usual rate of weakening due to the strong
shear conditions is expected to be tempered by the increasing
baroclinic forcing in the right-rear entrance region of a strong
jetstream wind maximum. The NHC intensity closely follows a blend of
the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by
Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by
local officials.

2.  Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 31.0N  72.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 31.5N  70.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 32.6N  67.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 34.6N  63.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 37.4N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 41.5N  57.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 43.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1800Z 46.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

000
FONT14 KNHC 172042
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   X(17)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   5(23)   X(23)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BERMUDA        34  1  50(51)  41(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
BERMUDA        50  X   4( 4)  40(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Hurricane Humberto Graphics


Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:53:23 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 21:25:21 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Ten (AT5/AL102019)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 17
 the center of Ten was located near 13.4, -45.6
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTNT35 KNHC 172034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 45.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h).  A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track,
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.  The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the
northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  
000
WTNT25 KNHC 172033
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  45.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  45.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  45.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N  46.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N  48.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.9N  51.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N  54.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N  60.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N  66.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  45.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTNT45 KNHC 172034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today.  Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment.  These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.4N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 14.1N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 15.0N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.9N  51.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.9N  54.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 18.9N  60.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 20.9N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 23.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

243 
FONT15 KNHC 172034
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   2(15)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   3(23)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   2(29)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  23(32)   1(33)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)   1(25)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   1(23)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   1(21)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  14(30)   1(31)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   X(20)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Depression Ten Graphics


Tropical Depression Ten 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:36:09 GMT

Tropical Depression Ten 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 21:32:28 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, on Tropical Storm
Mario, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lorena,
located a couple of hundred miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

An elongated trough of low pressure lying near the coast of
southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador is producing a
large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends
several hundred miles southward over the Pacific waters. Gradual
development of this system is anticipated during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while
moving westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

Public Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...SATELLITE WINDS REVEAL A WEAKER KIKO...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Kiko was located near 16.8, -125.1
 with movement WSW at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 172037
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...SATELLITE WINDS REVEAL A WEAKER KIKO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 125.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 125.1 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the west
on Wednesday, and a west-northwestward motion Thursday into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Little change in strength is anticipated for the
next day or so, but after that time Kiko could gradually
restrengthen into a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 172037
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.1W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.1W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 125.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 172038
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Convection has been struggling near the center of Kiko today, with
only some re-development near the core of the cyclone during the
past couple of hours.  There's a pretty big disparity in the
initial wind speed estimates this afternoon. Recent ASCAT data
supports 40-45 kt, while other estimates are still near hurricane-
force.  Weighing the scatterometer data heavier than most gives an
initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is on track toward the west-southwest, steered by a ridge
extending from the central Pacific.  The forecast continues to
shift to the south with time, with a stronger ridge anticipated,
and the model guidance is more consistent in showing two west-
southwestward dips, one at the current time and one after day 5. The
new NHC track prediction is somewhat south of the previous one, but
this time it is fairly close to the model consensus, hopefully
indicating that the southward shifts are done for the time being.

While the current shear near Kiko should relax later today, it
could take some time before the storm can recover from the
effects of the shear.  Kiko will probably to re-strengthen in a day
or so, in part due to the cyclone moving over warmer waters in a
low-shear environment.  Afterward, there is very little agreement on
the long-range upper-level wind forecast, leading to wildly
divergent intensity forecasts by day 5 in the models, ranging from a
tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane.  For now since the
track forecast brings Kiko again over warmer waters, a slight
increase in wind speed is shown, and this could be conservative at
the end of the 5-day period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 16.8N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 172037
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   2(16)   1(17)   1(18)
 
20N 125W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
15N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  19(28)  14(42)   6(48)   3(51)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)  12(17)  10(27)   3(30)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  18(23)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics


Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:26 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:27 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...MARIO FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO, FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Mario was located near 12.3, -108.7
 with movement NW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 172037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...MARIO FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO, FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 108.7W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 108.7 West. Mario is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is anticipated for the next couple of days, with a turn to
the west-northwest forecast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression
could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 172037
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 172038
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the
cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western
semicircle.  While the subjective estimates are unchanged from
earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the
increased convective organization trend on satellites.  Thus the
initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory.

Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated
for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered
over northwestern Mexico.  A slow west-northwest track is forecast
at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global
models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC
track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since
the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm
Lorena.

With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems
probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear,
warm-water environment.  Interestingly, the guidance is actually
lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any
reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast
ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back
upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of
the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 172038
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  3  36(39)   4(43)   2(45)   3(48)   2(50)   X(50)
15N 110W       50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   8(18)   4(22)   1(23)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)  27(46)  12(58)   5(63)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   8(19)   4(23)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
15N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  14(24)  17(41)  10(51)   4(55)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   8(15)   3(18)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)  10(26)   7(33)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Tropical Storm Mario Graphics


Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:23 GMT

Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:23 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17
 the center of Lorena was located near 14.8, -101.6
 with movement NW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 2A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 172342
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 101.6 West. The tropical
storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
Lorena is forecast to move over or very near the southwestern coast
of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and
could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019  
000
WTPZ25 KNHC 172040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019  
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 172041
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

A pair of ASCAT passes sampled the circulation of Lorena earlier
this afternoon and showed multiple 40-45 kt wind vectors. Based on
that data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for
this advisory. Lorena's cloud structure has improved somewhat
during the afternoon, though Dvorak-based wind estimates are still
notably lower than the ASCAT winds.

The track models have come into much better agreement, and there has
been a large shift eastward in the track guidance. However, since
the NHC track forecast was previously on the east side of the
guidance envelope, only a slight eastward shift was made to the
official forecast. Lorena is still expected to move generally
northwestward for the next day or two, and should move over or very
near the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday or early
Thursday. If the circulation survives its interaction with land, it
should continue to head northwestward, perhaps toward the Baja
California peninsula. That said, this portion of the forecast is
highly conditional, and Lorena may end up just dissipating over the
high terrain of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is now very close to
TVCN and HCCA, especially through 72 h, and confidence in the track
forecast has increased.

The tropical storm has strengthened, and conditions appear favorable
for additional slow strengthening. Once the circulation approaches
the coast of Mexico, its intensity will become closely tied to its
track. If Lorena moves inland, it will likely weaken quickly and
could dissipate entirely shortly thereafter. If it stays offshore,
it could maintain its strength and even intensify further as it
moves away from the coast of Mexico later this week, as shown by the
HWRF, DSHP, and LGEM models. The NHC intensity forecast is
consistent with the track forecast, and therefore shows Lorena
weakening due to land interaction after 48 h, but is below the
intensity consensus since a number of those models keep the cyclone
farther from the coast.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 14.6N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 172040
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   X(19)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
15N 105W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  15(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   8( 8)  39(47)   9(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1  29(30)   4(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
L CARDENAS     50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1  13(14)   2(16)   X(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
15N 100W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics


Tropical Storm Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:43:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:43:27 GMT