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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 282328
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Zeta, located inland over southeastern Louisiana.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the weekend or early
next week while it meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

Summary for Hurricane Zeta (AT3/AL282020)

...ZETA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN  LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
 As of 8:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 28
 the center of Zeta was located near 30.7, -89.6
 with movement NNE at 25 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 974 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 17A

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020  
000
WTNT33 KNHC 282356
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
 
...ZETA BATTERING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 89.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 89.9 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) A faster north-
northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even
faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward
motion early Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
move from southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi
during the next hour or two, and then move across the southeastern
and eastern United States later tonight and on Thursday.
 
Radar and surface data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  Weakening
will continue to occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern United
States on Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).  Shell Beach Louisiana recently reported sustained
winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). A
Weatherflow station at New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently
reported a minimum central pressure of 973 mb (28.74 mb).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...
 
Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...7-11 ft
MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
 
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within
the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are also likely beginning within the
Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast in a few
hours.
 
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.  Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.
 
RAINFALL:  Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into
the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020  
000
WTNT23 KNHC 282058
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN 
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE 
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING 
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING 
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL 
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND 
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW 
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  90.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  90.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  91.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  50SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N  78.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N  68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 44.0N  57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N  90.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020  
000
WTNT43 KNHC 282100
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020
 
The center of Zeta is in the Terrebone Bay area of Louisiana and 
is making landfall near Cocodrie.  Somewhat surprisingly, Zeta has 
rapidly intensified this afternoon. Although the hurricane has been 
moving over marginally warm SSTs and relatively low heat content 
waters, it has intensified from 80 kt to 95 kt in about 6 hours.  It 
is possible that this intensification can be at least partly 
attributable to a conducive interaction with with an upper-level 
trough located a few hundred miles to the west-northwest of Zeta.  
The 95-kt intensity estimate for Zeta is based on a blend of 
flight-level, SFMR and dropsonde winds from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
 
Since the center will either be interacting with land or moving over 
land from this point, a weakening trend should begin tonight.  The 
official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, 
which should handle the exponential decay of wind seed for tropical 
cyclones moving over land.  In 24 hours or so, the global models 
depict the system as being embedded in a front while it approaches 
the United States east coast.  Thus the official forecast shows an 
extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond.  After 48 hours, the 
models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal 
zone.

Zeta has turned toward the north-northeast and the forward speed is
increasing, with the motion now 025/21 kt.  The cyclone should
accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a 500-mb trough through
tonight.  The system should then move even faster toward the 
northeast, ahead of the trough, and across the southeastern and 
eastern United States on Thursday. Post-tropical Zeta should move 
east-northeastward, in the mid-level westerlies, into the Atlantic 
Friday morning.  The official track forecast follows the correct 
model consensus, HCCA, rather closely. 

Given Zeta's acceleration after landfall, strong winds are likely 
to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. overnight and 
early Thursday.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. A life-threatening storm surge is beginning along portions of the 
northern Gulf Coast, with the highest inundation expected to occur 
somewhere between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, 
Alabama, especially along the Mississippi coast. Overtopping of 
local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern 
Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction 
System. 

2.  Extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are spreading across 
portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern 
Louisiana coast and will spread to the Mississippi coast this 
evening.  Tropical storm conditions will spread into portions of the 
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western 
Florida Panhandle coasts in the next few hours.  

3.  Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and 
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of 
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, 
and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast 
forward speed.  Wind gusts could be especially severe across the 
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4.  Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of 
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio 
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States 
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, 
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 29.2N  90.6W   95 KT 110 MPH...ON THE COAST
 12H  29/0600Z 32.8N  87.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1800Z 37.5N  78.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z 41.0N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1800Z 44.0N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020

000
FONT13 KNHC 282058
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020               
2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS
...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)  18(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)  32(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   1( 1)  40(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   3( 3)  30(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
PAX RIVER NAS  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)  37(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X  17(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X  17(17)  22(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X  51(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
DANVILLE VA    50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   4( 4)  14(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   4( 4)  13(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X  55(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X  55(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  3  86(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
ATLANTA GA     50  X  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  1  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 44   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34 28  30(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34 73   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
BIRMINGHAM AL  50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
MONTGOMERY AL  50 26   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
WHITING FLD FL 50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34 94   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
PENSACOLA FL   50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOBILE AL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOBILE AL      50 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
MOBILE AL      64 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GULFPORT MS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GULFPORT MS    50 92   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
GULFPORT MS    64  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
STENNIS MS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
STENNIS MS     50 42   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
BURAS LA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BURAS LA       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BURAS LA       64 38   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
PENSACOLA NAS  50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEESLER AB     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KEESLER AB     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KEESLER AB     64 31   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Hurricane Zeta Update Statement

Issued at 800 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020  
536 
WTNT63 KNHC 290102
TCUAT3
 
Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
800 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN 
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

The National Ocean Service station at Waveland, Mississippi, 
recently reported sustained winds of 80 mph (129 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

The National weather Service office in Slidell, Louisiana reported 
a minimum pressure of 975.9 mb inside the eye of Zeta during the 
past hour.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 89.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Beven/Blake
 
 

Hurricane Zeta Graphics


Hurricane Zeta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 23:57:11 GMT

Hurricane Zeta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 21:25:21 GMT

Hurricane Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics


Hurricane Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 21:20:29 GMT

Hurricane Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Hurricane Zeta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 21:01:17 GMT

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at 511 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 /411 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/


Local Statement for Jackson, MS

Issued at 413 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020


Local Statement for Birmingham, AL

Issued at 418 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020


Local Statement for Atlanta, GA

Issued at 537 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020


Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at 455 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020


Local Statement for Knoxville, TN

Issued at 702 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020


Local Statement for Blacksburg, VA

Issued at 714 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020


Local Statement for Raleigh, NC

Issued at 714 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020


Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at 727 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020


Local Statement for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020


    

 

Eastern Pacific


Graphical outlook

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form south of the
coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next
week as the system moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 29 Oct 2020 01:02:42 GMT