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Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
  

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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS02 KWNS 160611
SWODY2
SPC AC 160610

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal risk for severe storms will be possible on Tuesday in
parts of the Northeast and in the central to northern Plains.

...Northeast...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Lower Great
Lakes Region on Tuesday as a cold front advances southeastward
across the Northeast. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front should be
in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. In spite of extensive cloud cover,
some instability should develop ahead of the front from the
Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. In addition, forecast
soundings from eastern Pennsylvania into western New England on
Tuesday show 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 kt range suggesting enough
shear will be in place for a marginal severe threat. Although
numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing across the region, a few of
the multicell storms that develop ahead of areas that sufficiently
destabilize, could be associated with strong wind gusts.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across the
central High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture is forecast from the central Plains
northwestward into the northern High Plains where pockets of
moderate instability appear likely to develop by Tuesday afternoon.
Although the distribution of instability remains highly uncertain,
forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in
place across most of the moist sector. For this reason,
thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain and along residual
outflow boundaries in the lower elevations could obtain a marginal
severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail are forecast to be the
primary threats.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Broyles.. 07/16/2018

$$