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Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
  

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 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS02 KWNS 220634
SWODY2
SPC AC 220633

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected from a portion of the
Southern Plains to the lower and middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley
regions Friday.

...Discussion...

Upper pattern will remain characterized by a synoptic trough over
the western U.S. and a downstream low-amplitude ridge in the east.
Weak vorticity maxima embedded within the broad southwesterly flow
regime will interact with baroclinic zone that should initially
extend from south TX into the OH Valley. Most thunderstorms should
remain confined to zone of isentropic ascent and weak instability on
cool side of this front. Deep convection will struggle to develop in
warm sector due to weak forcing and a very marginal thermodynamic
environment with warming temperatures aloft. However a few lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out with showers that might initiate in
confluence zone from southern LA into southern MS.

..Dial.. 02/22/2018

$$